317: The Financial Cold War with China

Wealth Formula Podcast

No matter how open-minded you think you are, you are always going to approach things with a certain bias. And it only takes being completely wrong about something that you would have bet your life on to realize that. My perspective on Covid-19 in the early days is a good example. Now I know there seem to be some who still don’t think it was a big deal. However, at least old guard Covid and Delta were pretty dangerous and a lot of people died. Others, like me, got very sick and took a long time to fully recover. Early on, when reports started coming out of China, the data didn’t impress me. In hindsight, the data wasn’t accurate. However, the more powerful force in my mind negating the seriousness of Covid was my bias that something like that could not happen in our country. I certainly was aware of SARS and Ebola outbreaks overseas but my mind could not process a pandemic in the United States. I was wrong. And when you are wrong on such a serious thing it makes you realize your own biases and perspective very well. As an investor, this concept of trying to recognize your Blindspots is extraordinarily important. For example, remember that most digital assets i.e. cryptocurrency investments are still highly speculative and involve asymmetric risk. Aside from perhaps bitcoin, the risk profile for cryptocurrency is extremely high even if you believe in the individual projects and the team involved. Sometimes, if people around you are echoing the same positive sentiments, it can sometimes artificially blind us to the actual risk involved. A great example of that recently involves the cryptocurrency, Luna. It seemed like a great project with considerable upside but still had an asymmetric risk profile. And, as these kinds of investments can lead to tremendous upside, they can often go to zero which is exactly what happened to Luna. Biases based on perspective are around us everywhere. The reason I mention them now is because of my conversation with this week’s guest on Wealth Formula Podcast, James Fok. James is an expert on China and its relations with the United States and the financial markets. His view on China’s motives whether it comes to digital currency or the war in Ukraine are quite different from what I had expected. Reflecting on this interview, I realized it was just another example of how perspective can really influence the way you view the world. James is an English intellectual who lives in Hong Kong. I am an American who sees China as an adversary akin to the former Soviet Union. Tune in to this conversation. You’ll see what I mean.