What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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In Her Ellement

1
Navigating Career Pivots and Grit with Milo’s Avni Patel Thompson 26:18

28 gün önce26:18

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26:18

How do you know when it’s time to make your next big career move? With International Women’s Day around the corner, we are excited to feature Avni Patel Thompson, Founder and CEO of Milo. Avni is building technology that directly supports the often overlooked emotional and logistical labor that falls on parents—especially women. Milo is an AI assistant designed to help families manage that invisible load more efficiently. In this episode, Avni shares her journey from studying chemistry to holding leadership roles at global brands like Adidas and Starbucks, to launching her own ventures. She discusses how she approaches career transitions, the importance of unpleasant experiences, and why she’s focused on making everyday life easier for parents. [01:26] Avni's University Days and Early Career [04:36] Non-Linear Career Paths [05:16] Pursuing Steep Learning Curves [11:51] Entrepreneurship and Safety Nets [15:22] Lived Experiences and Milo [19:55] Avni’s In Her Ellement Moment [20:03] Reflections Links: Avni Patel Thompson on LinkedIn Suchi Srinivasan on LinkedIn Kamila Rakhimova on LinkedIn Ipsos report on the future of parenting About In Her Ellement: In Her Ellement highlights the women and allies leading the charge in digital, business, and technology innovation. Through engaging conversations, the podcast explores their journeys—celebrating successes and acknowledging the balance between work and family. Most importantly, it asks: when was the moment you realized you hadn’t just arrived—you were truly in your element? About The Hosts: Suchi Srinivasan is an expert in AI and digital transformation. Originally from India, her career includes roles at trailblazing organizations like Bell Labs and Microsoft. In 2011, she co-founded the Cleanweb Hackathon, a global initiative driving IT-powered climate solutions with over 10,000 members across 25+ countries. She also advises Women in Cloud, aiming to create $1B in economic opportunities for women entrepreneurs by 2030. Kamila Rakhimova is a fintech leader whose journey took her from Tajikistan to the U.S., where she built a career on her own terms. Leveraging her English proficiency and international relations expertise, she discovered the power of microfinance and moved to the U.S., eventually leading Amazon's Alexa Fund to support underrepresented founders. Subscribe to In Her Ellement on your podcast app of choice to hear meaningful conversations with women in digital, business, and technology.…

1 yıl önce 28:56

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Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains what the latest signals from the Bank of England and that Q1 UK GDP report mean in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. He also previews the coming week’s US inflation data, tells David Wilder why EM monetary easing will need to slow and puts the US current account deficit in context.

Also on the show, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams talks to Leah Fahy from our China team about what his analysis of Chinese auto production and exports says about what’s been missing from the growing global row about Chinese industrial overcapacity.

And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic.

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#Trading #Business #David Wilder #Economics #Global Economy #Macroeconomics #Central Banking #Rated #Inflation #Gdp

What’s missing from the China overcapacity row, that UK GDP data and an exclusive inflation briefing

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

12 subscribers

published 1 yıl önce

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MP3•Bölüm sayfası

And, in an exclusive clip from our recent client briefing about global inflation, the team talk services inflation and signs of labour market softening on both sides of the Atlantic.

142 bölüm

#Trading #Business #David Wilder #Economics #Global Economy #Macroeconomics #Central Banking #Rated #Inflation #Gdp

Tüm bölümler

1
A "whiff of stagflation", the state of US exceptionalism, and China's weak start to 2025 31:10

3 gün önce31:10

31:10

There’s a “whiff of stagflation” around the US economy – and that’s even before Donald Trump rolls out his reciprocal tariffs plan. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off a plane from New York and onto The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to give his take on the latest US consumption and price data, to preview March payrolls and to talk about what this all means for the US and global macro outlook. He’s joined by Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, who explains what all of this means for US markets exceptionalism. Also on this week’s episode, our China Activity Proxy is our long-running proprietary read of what’s really happening with Chinese economic activity. Leah Fahy from our China team is on to discuss what the latest read of this widely followed indicator says about the trajectory for Chinese growth in 2025. Analysis referenced in this episode The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/asset-allocation-update/beginning-end-us-exceptionalism Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economic-outlook/global-economic-outlook-trade-war-dampen-not-derail-global Data: China Activity Proxy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy CAP: Weak start to the year for China’s economy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weak-start-year-chinas-economy…

1
The Mar-a-Lago myth, another crisis in Turkey and Rachel Reeves' under pressure 34:49

10 gün önce34:49

34:49

Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix what ails the US balance of payments? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the show this week to tackle the various ideas around what the Trump administration could do to address long-standing global imbalances. He also warns that uncertainty around the Trump trade agenda may not dissipate with the release of the reciprocal tariffs plan on 2nd April and explains how this is all feeding into central bank uncertainty about the policy path ahead. Also on the show, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory talks about what to expect from Rachel Reeves’ upcoming fiscal statement, but also discusses the Chancellor’s spending challenges in a more dangerous world that demands a forceful UK security posture. And Senior EM Economist Liam Peach explains resurgent risks around Turkey’s economy and markets after the arrest of President Erdogan’s key political rival plunged the country back into crisis. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economic-outlook/europe-outlook-zeitenwende Global Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetings UK Drop-In: Spring Fiscal Forecast reaction – Macro and market implications of Reeves’ statement https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/uk-drop-spring-fiscal-forecast-reaction-macro-and-market-implications-reeves-statement Data: UK Employment Indicator https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/uk-employment-indicator Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-weekly/emerging-europe-weekly-turkey-fallout-polish-rate…

1
What to make of US recession fears, a Fed preview, our long-term global macro outlook and more 27:34

17 gün önce27:34

27:34

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week’s retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week’s Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won’t mean an automatic boost for economies. Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis talks about why we don’t think Donald Trump’s policy agenda will have an impact on the global economy over the long term. She talks about how the ranking of the top 10 biggest economies could change between now and 2050 and which are set to benefit most from the rollout of AI. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Event: Drop-In - The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetings https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetings Data: China Activity Proxy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy Read: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-defence-spending-turbocharge-economic-growth Drop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-equities-exceptionalism-dead Read: Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruption https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/long-run-economic-outlook/global-megatrends-will-outweigh-trump-disruption…

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Tariffs special: The macro implications of Trump's latest trade actions 21:29

27 gün önce21:29

21:29

In light of Donald Trump's decision to push the button on tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins a special episode of the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this signals the start of a global trade war. He also discusses what’s coming next and whether signs of US economic weakness could prompt a shift in the White House's trade strategy. China Economics Head Julian Evans-Pritchard, Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown and Chief EM Economist William Jackson are also on the show to talk about the economic implications for China, Canada and Mexico, and how their governments might respond. Events referenced in this episode: Global Drop-In: Trump tariffs hit China, Mexico and Canada – Macro and market implications https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-trump-tariffs-hit-china-mexico-and-canada-macro-and-market-implications China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment…

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In the fog of policy uncertainty, China’s National People's Congress, India in Trumpland and more 23:50

4 weeks önce23:50

23:50

In the latest Capital Economics Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing breaks down just how the policy uncertainty emanating from the Trump administration is – and isn’t affecting – the global economy. He also previews the February US employment report and whether Musk’s layoffs will impact the national labour market and the opening of this year’s National People’s Congress in Beijing. Also on the show, what’s the view of Trump’s tariff threats from India? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah calls from Mumbai after a week of meetings with business, government and media to talk about why Narendra Modi’s administration thinks it can dodge this bullet, as well as the macro environment and RBI response. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/could-uncertainty-weigh-global-economy China Drop-In: 2025 NPC – Setting policy goals in a trickier global environment https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/china-drop-2025-npc-setting-policy-goals-trickier-global-environment CAP: Official data underplays China’s 2024 weakness https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-official-data-underplays-chinas-2024-weakness India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-weekly/india-weekly-tariff-manoeuvres-rbi-shifts-priorities-long-run…

1
Was that the week that changed the world? 28:05

5 weeks önce28:05

28:05

It's been an extraordinary week in geopolitics, with direct US-Russia talks, a war of words between Washington and Kyiv and Europe swept by fears about the end of the US security backstop. But how much has really changed? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham are on the Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about separating the reality from the headlines. They discuss intensifying strains between the US and Europe, the constraints on any breakdown in relations, global economic fracturing and the outlook for European defence spending and how it will be funded. Also this week, in an exclusive excerpt from our recent client briefing on the issues around the Ukraine war, Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what a potential peace deal could mean for the region’s economies and how US-Russia relations are set to evolve. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Explore: Global economic fracturing https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economy Drop-In: German election 2025 – The new government’s domestic and global challenges https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-german-election-2025-new-governments-domestic-and-global-challenges EM Drop-in: EM financial risk update – The state of sovereign, bank and FX vulnerabilities https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-em-financial-risk-update-state-sovereign-bank-and-fx-vulnerabilities…

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Why markets rallied on reciprocal tariffs; Germans to vote in the shadow of Trump, Xi and Putin 34:52

6 weeks önce34:52

34:52

Why did markets greet the latest White House tariffs announcement so warmly? Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about the influence of Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan on investor sentiment and discuss where the much-vaunted 'Trump trade' goes from here. The episode’s main item is all about Germany. With voters in the euro-zone’s biggest economy heading to the polls on 23rd February, Andrew Kenningham and Elias Hilmer from our Europe team talk about what the next government could look like. They address whether the anticipated governing coalition will have the appetite to overhaul the country’s stalled growth model, and how Germany will fare in a world increasingly shaped by Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. Analysis and data referenced in this episode: Euro-zone Drop-In: German election 2025 – Macro and market implications https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/euro-zone-drop-german-election-2025-macro-and-market-implications German economy post-election: from bad to not much better https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/german-economy-post-election-bad-not-much-better Data: Euro-zone Debt Sustainability Monitor https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/euro-zone-debt-sustainability-monitor The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/europe-economics-focus/slow-agony-germanys-auto-industry…

1
Lessons from a drama-filled week in Trumpland, China upends the EM development model and more 22:58

7 weeks önce22:58

22:58

It’s been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn’t happen, and the implications for macro and markets. As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump’s trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths. Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: EMs and the suspension of US aid https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aid Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-diverging Commodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities markets https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets…

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Special: Trump tariffs unleashed - does a global trade war follow? 12:21

8 weeks önce12:21

12:21

Donald Trump ended weeks of speculation on Saturday with the formal announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. As those countries respond, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder on this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about whether this marks the beginning of a global trade war. Neil addresses the immediate economic threats to Canada and Mexico, but also explains why these tariffs end the chance of any more rate cuts from the Fed. He also discusses what further action Trump could take against US trade partners – not least China – and the broader risks to the global trading environment. For more on the Trump policy agenda and its macro implications, see this dedicated page: https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term…

1
Trump vs the Fed, the real Stargate story and why oil prices look even shakier 22:04

9 weeks önce22:04

22:04

Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of some of what the president has pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing was on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House. Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussain from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Central Bank Hub https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hub Read: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrow Event: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025 https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025 Read: What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergency Read: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps…

1
An ‘American Carnage’ sequel? Another big year for US stocks, Keir Starmer's AI dreams and more 31:57

10 weeks önce31:57

31:57

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what’s known and unknown about Donald Trump’s policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution. Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdown https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdown US continues to lead the way on our AI index https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-index US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-term Why we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025 https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025…

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Jobs blowout deepens bond market gloom, Rachel Reeves' sticky fiscal wicket, Trump and the dollar and more 21:42

11 weeks önce21:42

21:42

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond. They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government’s efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problems China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbi Capital Economics events https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events…

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The Fed changes tack, why no second Plaza Accord and why markets punished Brazil 27:25

14 weeks önce27:25

27:25

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’ (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed. Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil’s real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula’s spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil’s crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real’s fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: The Fracturing of the Global Economy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economy Data: Bank of England Caseometer https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometer EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implications Data: EM Financial Risk Indicators https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators…

1
Central bank policy pains, China’s pivot, the market bubble in 2025, geopolitics vs macro and more 29:29

15 weeks önce29:29

29:29

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB’s December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025. Neil also talks about whether China’s policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year. Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the coming year. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlook Latest quarterly Outlooks https://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooks Week-ahead Forecasts https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts…

1
The World in 2025 – The macro themes that will shape next year 21:43

17 weeks önce21:43

21:43

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story. They discussed how Donald Trump’s policy pledges will – and won’t – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next year https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-year Drop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlook https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
More tariff threats, China and 'Japanification', payrolls preview, India and Trump and more 22:51

17 weeks önce22:51

22:51

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report. Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Event: The World in 2025 https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024 How to think about tariffs https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond Data: China Activity Proxy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
Special Episode: What to make of Trump's tariff warning 13:26

18 weeks önce13:26

13:26

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffs https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-line Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
Trying to avoid talking Trump and what an end to the Ukraine war could look like 25:55

18 weeks önce25:55

25:55

Discussion on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics attempts to avoid any mention of Donald Trump – and fails almost immediately. But Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing’s point is that there is a lot going on in the world besides regime change in Washington. He talks to David Wilder about why inflation is worrying markets, why Chinese stimulus hopes were dashed, and what Nvidia’s earnings say about AI’s potential. Plus, despite escalation in the war in Ukraine, speculation is also building about an end to fighting when Donald Trump takes office next year. Senior EM Economist Liam Peach talks about what this could look like and its potential implications for the Ukrainian, Russian and broader European economies. Events and analysis referenced in this episode: London Event: The World in 2025 https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024 Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/capital-daily/nvidia-sign-ai-boost-us-equities-over Trump and the war in Ukraine https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-europe-economics-update/trump-and-war-ukraine Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trump-opec-china-whats-driving-oil-prices-2025…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
The economic fallout from tariffs and deportations and what follows the 'Trump bump' 30:48

19 weeks önce30:48

30:48

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing hops off the plane from New York and hops onto the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to explain what Donald Trump’s cabinet nominations signal about the macro policy outlook, how Europe and China could respond to tariffs and the economic implications of removing millions of migrant workers from the US economy. Plus, as the initial, post-election euphoria in US financial markets – dubbed the 'Trump bump' – wears off, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann discusses what lies ahead for equities, bonds and currencies. Analysis referenced in this episode: Key Issue: Trump's second term https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term Video presentation: Trump's second term – Implications for the US economy https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/video-presentation-trumps-second-term-implications-us-economy New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-markets-update/new-market-forecasts-ahead-new-trump-presidency Revising our currency forecasts to account for Trump https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/fx-markets-update/revising-our-currency-forecasts-account-trump Data: Global Market Forecasts https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/global-markets-forecasts…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Trump up-ends the macro narrative and the Chinese stimulus that wasn’t 24:23

20 weeks önce24:23

24:23

As the dust settles on that momentous election, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what is known and unknown about the coming Trump administration. He talks about potential guardrails on the president-elect’s pledges and about how central banks – not least the Fed – can navigate this trickier policy environment. Plus, after another widely anticipated Chinese stimulus announcement disappoints, Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams explains the disconnect between what the market wants to hear from the leadership in Beijing, and what the leadership is prepared to do to support the economy. Analysis referenced in this episode: Key Issue: Trump's second term https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/trumps-second-term Trump, tariffs, tech controls, Taiwan & China https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/trump-tariffs-tech-controls-taiwan-china What happened to the fiscal stimulus? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/what-happened-fiscal-stimulus Slowdown still has a lot further to run https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/slowdown-still-has-lot-further-run…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Special Episode: The US election aftermath and Trump's second coming 13:56

21 weeks önce13:56

13:56

In the wake of Donald Trump’s stunning election victory, our senior economists briefed clients ahead of the New York open on its macro and market implications. In this exclusive clip, you’ll hear Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talking to Chief North America Economist Paul Ashworth and Jonas Goltermann, our Deputy Chief Markets Economist, on the key issues around the aftermath of Election Day, including: What Trump’s policies could mean for US growth, inflation and Fed policy; How financial markets are likely to react in the coming weeks as this news beds in; The growing US public debt threat and whether – and when – the bond vigilantes could really assert themselves. Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-trumps-second-term-macro-and-market-implications Key Issue: Trump's second term https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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What this election means for macro and markets and the aftermath of the UK Budget 26:36

21 weeks önce26:36

26:36

Ahead of the year’s big political event, The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics includes an exclusive clip from our client briefing all about what to expect from the US election. Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and the team tackle everything from Kamala Harris’ fiscal plans to how the euro could react to which candidate the Chinese Communist Party would prefer to deal with. (Watch the full briefing here .) Plus, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory unpacks the market response to the UK Budget and explains how Rachel Reeves' fiscal plans could shape the UK's monetary policy outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode Register Now: Drop-In: US election aftermath – Trump vs Harris and the state of union https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-election-aftermath-trump-vs-harris-and-state-union Key Issues: US election 2024 https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/us-election-2024 Will the BoE start to cut interest rates quicker? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/boe-watch/will-boe-start-cut-interest-rates-quicker How worrying is the surge in Gilt yields? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-equities/how-worrying-surge-gilt-yields…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
Special Episode: UK Budget – Macro impact, market reaction 13:39

22 weeks önce13:39

13:39

After weeks of leaking and background briefings, Rachel Reeves finally revealed her debut UK Budget. Paul Dales, Diana Iovanel and Andrew Kenningham held an online client briefing about the Chancellor’s tax, borrowing and spending plans and what they mean for the UK economy and markets. This exclusive extract focuses on: What this Budget means for growth and Bank of England policy; How financial markets received the Budget news and where gilt yields are heading; What this Budget could mean for the UK housing market.…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Bond market jitters, UK Budget preview, Trudeau’s immigration U-turn and more 29:44

22 weeks önce29:44

29:44

Perhaps the most frequently asked question of the Capital Economics team is around fiscal risks and their implications for financial markets. There were more incoming this past week as Donald Trump looked to be doing better in the polls and more details about the UK Budget trickled out, all against a backdrop of rising bond yields. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what’s behind the rise in yields and how bond investors perceive government commitments to getting a grip on public debt in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. There’s more on the UK Budget too, with a preview of what to expect from Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Wednesday statement from Chief UK Economist Paul Dales and Deputy Chief Economist Ruth Gregory. Plus, Canada’s population could shrink for the first time in over 150 years if Ottawa’s stringent new immigration targets are met. That has huge implications for the country’s economic outlook and for Bank of Canada policy, as Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown explains. Analysis referenced in this podcast: Payrolls preview: Temporary disruptions to stymie recent strength https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/us-employment-report-preview/temporary-disruptions-stymie-recent-strength Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/bonds-focus/will-treasury-bulls-be-able-face-down-bond-vigilantes Key Issue: What to expect on UK 2024 Budget day https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/uk-2024-october-budget Canada's population decline will drag down GDP growth https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/canada-economics-update/population-decline-will-drag-down-gdp-growth…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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What Trump gets wrong on tariffs, a super-sized ECB rate cut, EV sales vs oil demand and more 30:38

23 weeks önce30:38

30:38

Donald Trump says ‘tariff’ is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. That’s up for debate – but what’s less arguable is that raising taxes on imports as much as the Republican presidential candidate is threatening would be bad trade policy, according to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing. He’s on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss why tariffs would hurt the US economy and the economies of its key trading partners, all while failing to achieve Trump’s objectives. Also on the show, Hamad Hussein from our Climate and Commodities team explains why reports of cooling electric vehicles sales in the US and Europe paint an incomplete demand picture, and what that all means for oil appetite. Plus, an exclusive extract from our post-ECB client briefing on the Governing Council’s next steps – including whether its last move of the year could be a super-sized rate cut. Analysis and events referenced in this podcast: Read: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world Key Issue: US Election 2024 Read: Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024 Watch: What will follow another ECB rate cut? Read: Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout Data: Long-term Energy Scenario Generator…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Another China stimulus let-down, the Fed and ECB’s next steps, India’s commodities demand and more 23:54

24 weeks önce23:54

23:54

It’s a rare thing for a press conference from China’s Minister of Finance to excite quite so much, but there were widespread hopes in markets that Saturday’s briefing from Lan Fo’an would finally provide the details of fiscal easing plans that had been missing from the government’s stimulus pledges so far. Did Minister Lan deliver? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his assessment on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics and discusses what the leadership needs to deliver to boost confidence in its steering of the economy. Neil also talks about the latest flow of US data and what that signals about what the Fed will do in November and previews the coming week’s ECB policy meeting. Also on the show, Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah and Assistant Economist Joe Maher talk about India’s economic rise and whether it will trigger a massive and broad surge in commodities prices, as China did previously. Research and events referenced in this episode: MOF promises more spending but scale still unclear Asia Drop-In: How far will policy easing go to support Asia’s economies? Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? Will India kickstart the next commodity boom? RBI on course for December rate cut…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

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Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global macro/markets outlook 34:15

25 weeks önce34:15

34:15

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election? Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in: How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates; What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US; Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that. Further reading Raymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Trip https://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-trip CE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-world CE: US Macro Scenarios dashboard https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenarios CE: China stimulus - Your questions answered https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answered CE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycle About Larry Adam Larry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank’s global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank’s global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992. Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and the International Herald Tribune. About Neil Shearing Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm’s products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio. Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
Special: Iran's missile strike on Israel and oil market implications 8:59

26 weeks önce8:59

8:59

In the wake of Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Tuesday, Deputy Chief EM Economist Jason Tuvey and David Oxley, our Chief Commodities and Climate Economist, talk about implications for the global oil market, including: What an Israeli retaliation against Iranian oil production could mean for prices; The risks around Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz; How far prices would need to rise to threaten the global inflation picture. Further reading Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Nasrallah and the next phase of war in the Middle East…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
China’s stimulus blizzard, the ECB’s quandary, Kamala Harris' housing plan and more 25:06

26 weeks önce25:06

25:06

China’s leadership finally took action this week to staunch the economy’s bleeding with a flurry of stimulus announcements and pledges to do more. But will it be enough? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing talks to David Wilder about whether the outlook for the Chinese economy has fundamentally shifted as a result of a news-packed few days. He also talks about what the latest European inflation data suggests about how the ECB will play its October meeting and marks the second anniversary of the Liz Truss “mini budget” debacle. Also in this episode, Thomas Ryan, our US housing lead, talks to US Economist Olivia Cross about how the market is finally shifting away from sellers, differences with what's happening in Canada and what Kamala Harris’ plans to improve affordability would mean for the US outlook. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: China: New fiscal package being lined up China property construction correction has barely begun Germany will be stuck in the slow lane Global Drop-In: Are the US and Europe at risk of recession? Key Issue: What to expect on Budget day US Housing: Sellers lose grip on the market…

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

1
As the Fed gets cutting, where will rates settle? 21:06

27 weeks önce21:06

21:06

After the long-awaited start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses next steps. He answers client questions about the risks of inflation bouncing back and explains why we expect rates to settle at levels much higher than before the pandemic. Also, on the show, Lily Millard and Shilan Shah from our emerging markets team discuss how EM central banks are likely to respond as US rates start falling. Analysis and events referenced in this episode: Report: Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing Key Issue: R* and the end of the ultra-low rates era Report: China's slowdown still has a lot further to run Drop-In: Europe Economic Outlook – Germany’s return to stagnation Property Drop-In: The size and shape of Europe’s commercial real estate recovery Data: EM Financial Risk Indicators Report: What the Fed’s easing cycle means for EMs…

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