Mike's Minute: The Government have read things right

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

So, one poll tells us something by not really moving and another poll tells us something by being badly misrepresented.

The TV1 news numbers last night show that essentially the Government is travelling well, most parties are stable, the Greens are down a bit, but its all, so far, within the margin of error. Nothing really has changed.

What that tells you is broadly a couple of things. The first is at this stage of the electoral cycle people don’t pay as much attention as they will be in 18 months' time.

The second is the Government, with its level of support, is doing basically what they said they would, and most people are happy.

The other poll was on race relations. TV1 promoted the fact only 10% think the Government is improving them, but 46% think they are damaging them.

What they didn’t give the appropriate prominence to was the fact 37% think it's not making any difference. In other words, despite all the noise and hot air being drummed up by radicals and the media, most of us aren't engaged because nothing really is changing.

If you take the 37% who see no change and the 10% who see an improvement you have 47%, which is in fact more people thinking things are either neutral or better, as opposed to the 46% who think they are worse.

This of course ties into why the Government numbers overall haven't moved and their support remains strong. The so-called drama around Māori policy is not actually politically damaging.

You will note the numbers weren't presented that way by the state-run broadcaster. A good question might be: why not?

What moves needles is the economy and on that we might be in for an improvement. If we are, what you will then see is the polling numbers most definitely shift in the Government's favour.

Māori relations have been tested and testy my entire life. The previous Government bent over backwards for Māori, their beliefs, needs and causes, and look where it got them.

The current Government have read things right. Outcomes are what count, whether in race relations or the economy.

The numbers broadly show they are on the right side of both.

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