Jesse Winker Possibly Returning Home? College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions | OTB 12.03.24

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We Cover this Story written by Drew Koch from Blog Red Machine

The internet was abuzz throughout Reds Country on Monday night with unconfirmed reports that a former All-Star could be on his way back to the city of Cincinnati. According to Mark C. Healey, Jesse Winker may be close to a deal with the Cincinnati Reds.

That's certainly not the oddest thing that Reds fans have heard this offseason, and to a certain extent, reuniting with Winker would actually make a lot of sense. After two down years with the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers, Winker resurrected his career in 2024 with stops in Washington and New York.

Winker began the 2024 season with the Washington Nationals and hit .257/.374/.419 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI. The former first-round pick was then dealt to the New York Mets at the MLB trade deadline and put up a .243/.318/.365 slash line in Queens. Combined, Winker posted a .764 OPS last season and was 7-for-24 with three extra-base hits during his postseason run with the Mets.

Reds Free Agency: Jesse Winker's potential return to Cincinnati has the fanbase split

On the one hand, adding a power-hitter to the middle of the lineup would be a plus. The past three seasons, Winker slugged just .354, but during his five-year run in Cincinnati, Winker's slugging percentage was .504 with a 129 OPS+. Winker appeared to get back on track last season in terms of his power numbers, and the Buffalo native has always had a terrific eye at the dish. Winker was ranked in the 96th percentile last season is terms of chase rate and walk rate according to Baseball Savant.

With Jonathan India now in Kansas City and Joey Votto enjoying retirement, the Reds don't have that reliable, patient hitter in the lineup who's able to draw walks and reach base with regularity. Adding a veteran like Winker whose knowledge of the strike zone is among the best in the league would undoubtedly offer an upgrade to the Reds lineup.

But there's a downside to signing Winker, and that comes on the other side of the ball. Though he can play in the outfield, Winker is among the worst defenders in Major League Baseball. Last season, while splitting time as a designated hitter, Winker was worth -11 outs above average and -41 OAA for his career. For a club looking to upgrade their defense, adding Winker would seem to be a huge mistake.

Whe 31-year-old also has noticeable lefty-right splits that would likely limit him to a platoon role. Last season, Winker hit just .236/.337/.337 against left-handed pitching while posting a .258/.366/.422 slash line against right-handers. Do the Reds really need another defensive liability who's also likely to sit against lefties?

From a payroll standpoint, adding Winker makes sense. Few teams are likely to hand over more than a two-year deal in order to sign the longtime Reds outfielder, and the average annual value (AAV) would probably come in at less than $10 million. That's well within the scope of what the Reds could afford.

There's definitely reason to believe that a reunion with Winker could work, but only if there are more moves to follow. At least Reds fans know that Winker hates Milwaukee, so he's got that going for him. Stay tuned, Reds fans. This could get interesting.