Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

Notes on the Week Ahead

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State Secrets: Inside The Making Of The Electric State

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The Secret To Getting Inspired: Millie Bobby Brown & Chris Pratt Go Behind The Scenes 21:04

7 weeks önce21:04

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21:04

Step into the mysterious and visually stunning world of The Electric State as host Francesca Amiker takes you behind the scenes with the creative masterminds who brought Simon Stålenhag’s dystopian vision to life. In this premiere episode, directors Joe and Anthony Russo, stars Millie Bobby Brown and Chris Pratt, writers Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely, and producers Angela Russo-Otstot and Chris Castaldi reveal how they transformed a haunting graphic novel into an epic cinematic experience. Watch The Electric State coming to Netflix on March 14th. Check out more from Netflix Podcasts . State Secrets: Inside the Making of The Electric State is produced by Netflix and Treefort Media.…

1 yıl önce 11:17

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I’ve been running my own econometric model of the U.S. economy for almost 30 years now. The basic structure is simple. You start by forecasting the components of demand, that is to say, consumption, investment, trade and government spending. This gives you an initial projection of real GDP growth. You then feed this into labor market equations, along with some demographic assumptions, to forecast the growth in jobs, the unemployment rate and wage growth. All of this, along with assumptions about energy prices and the dollar, then drive forecasts of inflation. Given this outlook for growth and inflation, you make an assumption about the path for the federal funds rate and then run forecasts of other interest rates. With all of this in hand, you can forecast productivity, corporate profits, the federal budget deficit and household net worth. And then you go back to the start to see how all these changes impact your original demand forecast. You repeat the process until you arrive at a reasonably consistent solution.

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Policy Changes and the Macro Outlook

Notes on the Week Ahead

209 subscribers

published 1 yıl önce

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377 bölüm

#Morgan #Chase #Money #Finance #Investing #Mutual #Morningstar #Gatch #Double #Dip #David #Kelly #George #Trading #Business #Dr David Kelly #Marketing #Insight #Fund #Recess

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Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Recession Risks, Resilience and American Exceptionalism 10:06

13 hours önce10:06

10:06

Last weekend, I neglected to finish my Notes on the Week Ahead as I got caught up in watching the Masters. In truth, it was mostly a battle between Rory McIlroy’s emotions, which produced two double-bogeys in his final round, and his exceptional skill, which propelled his second playoff shot to within three feet of the hole. I was particularly happy to see his victory since he hails from the same island as myself, But I was also glad to see him win because, at 35, he is no longer in the first blush of youth. It is a sad truth that in athletics, as in life, no-one soars forever. Twenty years from now, McIlroy will probably still be a fine golfer – training and resilience should see to that. But he may no longer be exceptional.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Tariff Turmoil and Investment Strategy 11:41

15 gün önce11:41

11:41

One clear advantage of getting older, (and I can attest to many of its disadvantages), is that you learn from experience. The financial market chaos, following the President’s tariff announcement, is different from previous market slumps. Every market selloff is. However, a common thread in all crises is that the best decisions begin with a structured approach to analysis.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

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Fiscal Fudge 7:35

29 gün önce7:35

7:35

I may have mentioned this before, but as a young lad, I had a very healthy appetite. Consequently, when deciding on a hobby, I prudently elected to go with “cooking”. My experiments included making fudge and my mother dutifully supplied me with sugar, vanilla and helpful advice. However, we possessed no candy thermometer and, as anyone in the fudge-making business will tell you, getting the temperature right is essential. Too hot and you end up with toffee or hard caramel. Too cold and you end up with a grim sludge, which no degree of refrigeration can render palatable. Making fudge is a delicate operation.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Wait and See Economy 12:08

5 weeks önce12:08

12:08

I was running along the roads of our neighborhood last weekend when I came upon a small herd of deer. I often see these beautiful but dopey creatures at dawn as they wander aimlessly in the middle of the road. When a car or truck bears down on them, they stop and stare. Perhaps they are pondering whether it would be more fun to hop into the woods to their right or gambol off into the field to their left. But, of course, the only important decision is to get out of the road. A “wait and see” attitude could be fatal.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Trouble with Tariffs 5:45

7 weeks önce5:45

5:45

I was at a conference last week and a financial advisor asked me what I thought he should say when a client asked him what was so bad about tariffs. It’s a fair question. Many people who instinctively believe in free trade would still have a hard time in clearly explaining the trouble with tariffs. And since tariffs are likely to be a big issue this week, with the president promising to impose postponed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a new, second 10% tariff on China as of March 4th, it seems like a good time to review the problem.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Implications of Slowing Population Growth 8:11

8 weeks önce8:11

8:11

In December, the Census Bureau announced that the U.S. population had grown by nearly 1% in the year ended July 1st, 2024, marking the strongest annual gain since 2001[1]. Given this, it seems strange to be already talking about slowing population growth. However, the reality is that the gap between births and deaths is continuing to shrink, with almost all of our recent population growth coming from immigration. Going forward, if immigration is dramatically curtailed, overall population growth could turn negative by the middle of the next decade while the working-age population would immediately start to contract. [1] See Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades , U.S. Census Press Release, December 19th, 2024.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Growth Drag from Policy Uncertainty 12:14

9 weeks önce12:14

12:14

In the four weeks since he took office, the president has issued an extraordinary number of executive orders, while promising dramatic change across the full reach of the federal government. While these policy moves have broad political, geopolitical and social implications, for investors, the most important concern tariffs, immigration, the federal workforce and the federal budget. The rapid pace of these moves, along with frequent reversals, court challenges and mixed signals on future policy actions, make it difficult for economists to assess their cumulative effects. Also important, and even harder to analyze, is the potential for policy uncertainty to delay business decisions. Much has been said about the potential for the new administration’s policies to add to inflation pressures. However, investors should also consider how these actions, and the uncertainty surrounding them, could slow economic growth.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

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Europe: The Slow and Steady Train 11:35

10 weeks önce11:35

11:35

For investors, Europe seems like a train in a station, perpetually gathering steam and loading up for a long-delayed journey, but clearly advertising only a modest pace when it gets under way. Such has been the case for the European economy and, even more so, for European equities for many years. This has, of course, been deeply frustrating for those investing in European stocks, which, while often producing OK returns, have underperformed U.S. stocks in 12 of the last 15 years.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Investment Implications of the Trade War 6:51

11 weeks önce6:51

6:51

On Saturday, the White House announced the imposition of heavy tariffs on goods exported from Mexico, Canada and China and all three nations announced their intention to retaliate. These tariffs threaten to raise prices and slow economic activity across all four countries. While the end game of this trade war remains very uncertain, it has the potential to impact bonds, stocks and exchange rates. For investors, regardless of the early market reaction, the reality of a trade war suggest the need for broad diversification including allocations to real assets and international assets.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
White House Actions, Fed Reactions and Investing 10:10

12 weeks önce10:10

10:10

This Wednesday, at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve will release a statement on monetary policy. It will, as usual, be a brief and colorless document and will look paler still in comparison to the more than 60 executive orders, proclamations and memoranda that have emanated from the White House in the first week of the President’s new term. However, the Fed’s statement and Jay Powell’s press conference could well be of equal importance to financial markets.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
The Big Picture on Debt, Deficits and Interest Rates 12:25

13 weeks önce12:25

12:25

“Unsustainable!” To quote Inigo Montoya: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means” For decades, journalists, economists, politicians, and central bankers have said that the U.S. federal debt is on an “unsustainable” path. However, it has stayed on that path, climbing from a very manageable $3.3 trillion, or 31.5% of GDP, in fiscal 2001, to $28.3 trillion, or 98.2% of GDP in fiscal 2024.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Interest Rates, Inflation and the Uncertainty Tax 12:22

14 weeks önce12:22

12:22

In football, it’s always better, at the snap of the ball to disguise your intentions. Are you going to pass or run the ball? Is it a zone defense or man-to-man? In business or in military maneuvers the same rule applies – keep them guessing. However, in macro-economic management, it is better to make your plans clear. That way businesses can feel more confident in hiring and investing, as can consumers when deciding to buy. It is one of the reasons the Federal Reserve publishes a quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (or SEP) and so frequently repeats its determination to achieve 2% inflation.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Stability and Extremes 10:20

15 weeks önce10:20

10:20

Over the holiday season, we got to spend some time with our very charming granddaughter and, as a bonus, I am now fully re-acquainted with all the verses of “The Wheels on the Bus”. As we enter 2025, the American economy is rather like an old school bus – slow but steady, reliable and resilient. It generally moves forward. However, it is not invulnerable. The wheels of the bus are being pulled off the ground by ballooning asset prices. The new driver of the bus may or may not try some dangerous policy maneuvers. The wipers of the bus may be obscuring obstacles in the road ahead. And the people on the bus, instead of spreading out and sitting down, are all standing up, crowded to one side so that if something does go wrong, there could be significant injuries.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Reading Between the Lines (On the Direction of Monetary Policy) 7:46

18 weeks önce7:46

7:46

When testifying to the Senate Banking Committee back in 1987, the newly-appointed Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan, provided some insight into his views on communication: “Since becoming a central banker”, he said, “I have learned to mumble with great incoherence. If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.” His successors have generally tried to be more open with regard to both their opinions and their intentions. However, there are times, when the Fed will want to communicate to financial markets without piquing the interest of either the general public or the administration.…

Notes on the Week Ahead

1
Initial Conditions 11:05

19 weeks önce11:05

11:05

Many years ago, I worked for the Office of Revenue and Tax Analysis at the State of Michigan and, from time to time, Saul Hymans and his colleagues from the University of Michigan would visit the state government in Lansing to discuss the latest output from their macro economic models of the U.S. and Michigan economies. As they started into their presentation, I was always eager to hear about their forecast. However, I was rather puzzled about how much time they devoted to the current quarter. I mean they had a big macroeconomic forecasting model – couldn’t we just skip the present and move on to the future?…

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