Apple Mentions A.I. & Gets Free Pass On Falling Earnings

McAlvany Weekly Commentary

Buffett Selling His Apple, Holding His Energy Stocks Developed Nations Central Banks Increase Gold Reserves MAG 7 Stocks Cap $15 Trillion "Macro analysis is delegated to the company economist. Everyone else parrots the findings and the prognostications, but isn't really cognizant of the factors going into financial market behavior. Frankly, I'm glad that's the case, because it creates far more opportunity in the marketplace when the majority of dollars are locked into truisms, are tied, really tied to the mast of conventional wisdom. It makes taking the other side of a trade far more interesting. It's like counting short exposure, and creating a short squeeze. If you can find something that's lopsided in the markets, that provides opportunity." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, you were able to get away for a few days. I mean, not just a little bit away, but very much away. Your sailing trip down in the Sea of Cortez, tell us about it. David: We're used to travel, and travel can sometimes be a distraction, but when you do that a lot for business, it usually is not. To really disconnect is to be completely absorbed in something. We went with a couple of friends, and got to do everything on the boat. A good friend of ours is a sailor, and so we rented a boat, and it was absolutely fantastic. Kevin: Weren't you the guy or one of the guys who provided dinner most of the nights? David: Yeah. Well, he provided the lessons in sailing. I provided the lessons in spearfishing. I've been doing it for about 15 years, so grouper was on the menu. That for me is where I completely disconnect, somewhere between 30 and 60 feet below the water, sitting, waiting for an opportunity, hoping that I have enough oxygen to connect. Kevin: One of the things we talked about last night was, sailing is such a great metaphor for life because so often you can have storms look like they're coming, and you can take proper action at the time. But a lot of times when you're out sailing, you can leave things up too long. You made a comment to me last night, "If you're actually thinking about reefing in the sail, you're probably a little bit late." David: Should have done it 30 minutes ago. Kevin: Yeah. David: That's just a question of bringing in the main sail, or bringing in the jib, and having less power, which is what you need if the wind's picking up. Kevin: Before the gale hits— David: That's right. Kevin: —and tears everything to pieces. David: Now, I learned from you if you want to be a good pilot, then you look at the logs of what happened in a variety of crashes to see what was done wrong. If you can figure out what was done wrong, you can certainly do it the right way. So, I was a bit obsessed before this trip, going through different sailing videos of catastrophes. Kevin: You said you watched them with your wife. David: I loved it. Kevin: You'd lay in bed and watch catastrophe videos, seeing a catastrophe. David: Yeah. She's like, "Is this supposed to be inspiring?" "Absolutely. We'll be better sailors for it." Kevin: Well, when you fly, too, you don't fly the weather that you take off in. You really need to plan to fly the weather that you're probably going to need to land in. I'm going to shift this to Wall Street right now because we've got stocks that are incredibly overvalued. We've got these splits that are going on, 50 to one splits in the stock market, and yet Wall Street is saying, "Hey, we're just at the beginning of the great rise." David: Oh, they're looking at blue skies, and everything's fine. The sails are about where they need to be, and there's not a whole lot of anticipation. So, it will take some anticipation to avoid having too much sail out when the winds pick up. Earlier this week, I sat on a call listening to a Wall Street firm. I won't mention the name,