Election Volatility Incoming?? + Lower US Soybean Yield Estimate

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0:00 Election Volatility?
2:39 Lower Soybean Yield Estimate
6:38 US Harvest Update
9:22 Brazil Planting Update
10:54 US Grain Shipments
11:51 Flash Sales
Here’s the latest update on the agricultural market and economic dynamics!
Dollar and Treasury Yield Movements
Increased skepticism regarding a Trump victory has led to a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields on Monday.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by up to 12 basis points to 4.26%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.7%.
Polling data indicating a lead for Kamala Harris over Trump in Iowa triggered these market moves. Investors had previously positioned themselves for a Trump victory, expecting his policies to boost economic growth and inflation.
Corn and Soybean Crop Forecasts Adjusted
StoneX has lowered its forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean crops:
Corn yield is now estimated at 183.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 184 bpa, with total production estimated at 15.193 billion bushels.
Soybean yield is projected at 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa, with total production at 4.539 billion bushels.
Harvest Progress
Both corn and soybean harvests are nearing completion and are running ahead of schedule:
Corn: 91% harvested nationally through Sunday, compared to 81% the previous week and 75% on average. This is the fastest harvest since 2012.
Soybeans: 94% harvested nationally, compared to 89% the prior week and 85% on average. This pace ties with 2022, marking the fastest since 2005.
Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are currently the second worst since 1986, with only 41% rated good to excellent. Despite low ratings, only 23% of the crop is rated poor to very poor. The crop was 87% planted through Sunday, with forecasted rainfall expected to improve conditions.
Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers are making significant progress in soybean planting:
As of last Thursday, 54% of the expected area has been planted, up from 36% the prior week. This pace is the second fastest on record for this time of year.
Export Activity
USDA reported strong soybean shipments last week:
2.2mmt (79mil bushels) of soybeans were inspected for export, down 18% from the previous week but slightly above last year's levels.
Corn shipments totaled 779,078mt (31mil bushels), down 7.3% week-over-week but up 36% from last year.
Wheat shipments fell to 193,523mt (7mil bushels), a 34% decline from the previous week but up 69% year-on-year.
Flash Sales Activity
USDA reported three flash sales on Monday:
150,000 metric tons (6mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.