China is BACK... but Traders Don't Care (US Soybean Exports)

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0:35 China is Back
2:53 The Weather Market is Over
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8:51 Ru/Ukr Peace Deal?
11:02 Ethanol Production
🌾 Agricultural Sector Update: Market Movements and Weather Impact 📊🌦️
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights into agricultural markets, crop conditions, and significant geopolitical developments. Here’s a rundown of the current situation:
US Soybean Sales to China
The USDA reported a noteworthy flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first new crop soybean sale to China this year, occurring against a backdrop of the weakest new crop US soybean export sales since 2005.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Recent rains from Hurricane Beryl have significantly benefited regions of the Corn Belt such as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, with localized amounts reaching up to 6 inches. This rainfall was timely, particularly given the developing dryness in eastern areas. While mostly dry weather is expected in the coming days, forecasts indicate a return of rain to the eastern Corn Belt soon.
Upcoming USDA Reports
This Friday, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports. These are anticipated to reflect the data from the June Planted Acreage report, which showed a substantial increase in corn acreage. No major adjustments are expected for US corn and soybean yield projections. However, the global supply and demand dynamics, particularly f5or corn, might present a bearish outlook due to the increased acreage.
Geopolitical Developments
Ukraine is seeking to expedite peace talks with Russia ahead of the US presidential election, anticipating potential shifts in US foreign policy depending on the election outcome. The urgency reflects concerns about possible changes in military support depending on who wins the presidency.
Ethanol Production and Demand
US ethanol production has slightly decreased, with output at 1.05 million barrels last week. Ethanol stocks showed a marginal increase, reflecting a slight dip in implied gasoline demand. These figures are crucial as they impact corn markets, given that ethanol production is a significant corn use.
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