Evan Silva’s Matchups: Jaguars at Bills

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Team Totals: Jaguars 20, Bills 25.5

1-7 over their last eight games with 19.1 points per contest (26th), the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence (with one top-10 finish in that time) square off against a Bills secondary that neutralized Kyler Murray (5.2 yards per attempt) and Tua Tagovailoa (5.8) to begin the year. Similar to last season, Lawrence has crumbled under pressure with a 42.9% completion rate (25th) and 5.4 YPA (20th). But the Bills have reached enemy signal-callers at the 12th-lowest clip (31.3%) and Lawrence’s underlying metrics (including 13th in EPA/play) suggest imminent progress. He’s a fringe QB1 (behind MASSIVE protection problems) given his league-high 10 completions of 15+ yards. … Tank Bigsby was injured during a first-quarter kick-off in Week 2, allowing Travis Etienne to handle 76.1% (16) of the team’s backfield touches ahead of D’Ernest Johnson (5). Etienne’s two touchdowns (both from inside the 5) have still accounted for 45% of his fantasy production, plodding for 3.2 yards per carry and, in the season opener, merely out-touching Bigsby 14-12. Buffalo leaked 10/102/1 receiving to James Conner and De’Von Achane, elevating Etienne’s RB2 floor. Given his interchangeable touch count as Jacksonville’s 1B, Bigsby is an intriguing option for two-game slates.

Christian Kirk’s putrid 2/29 production through two games does not include Lawrence’s sailed wide-open 20-yard post route from the season opener. A WR3/4 for being boxed out of two-wide sets, Kirk at the very least benefits on-paper for Buffalo’s third-most targets (31) funneled to the slot. … Gabe Davis has led the Jags in routes run in both games, consistently registering WR4/FLEX numbers (WR44, WR48) to date. For what it’s worth, no defense has schemed more Cover 2 (29.9%) than HC Sean McDermott’s, which Davis spiked for 11 15-yard catches (15th) across 47 games with the Bills. … CB Taron Johnson’s absence benefits Brian Thomas Jr., who’s exploded for gains of 66, 28, 18, and 14 on a 17.9% target share (ahead of Kirk’s 16% mark). The No. 23 overall pick (and current WR3/FLEX) projects to lead the team’s WRs in fantasy points at season’s end. … Brenton Strange replaced Evan Engram following the latter’s multi-week hamstring injury suffered in warmups, running 28 routes (68%) to Luke Farrell’s 7 (17%). Already short stud MLB Matt Milano (torn biceps), backup MLB Terrel Bernard’s absence (torn pectoral) logically boosts Strange’s outlook after Jonnu Smith (6/53) had his way underneath.

Consider Josh Allen’s QB26 performance against the Dolphins an anomaly: it was his fewest carries (2) since Week 6 last year as Buffalo ran a league-low 45 plays and attempted six second-half passes amid a blowout. The 28-year-old has averaged 8.5 carries in 11 career starts under OC Joe Brady, registering three overall QB1 finishes in that time. … Six of Ray Davis’ nine carries in Week 2 came in the fourth quarter with a 31-10 lead, overshadowing James Cook’s commanding 73.3% share of backfield carries until Davis was plugged in to kill the clock. Cook has also handled all of Buffalo’s carries inside the five-yard line through two weeks. Achane’s 7/76 receiving against the Jaguars in Week 1 imply another ceiling performance for Cook, who has run more routes (25) than Ty Johnson and Davis combined (24).

Keon Coleman’s team-high 90% route rate theoretically paints a rosy picture opposite a Jags secondary sans CB Tyson Campbell (hamstring) and potentially S Darnell Savage (quadricep). A thin FLEX option for managed leagues, Coleman’s 21.7% target share from Week 1 is appealing in two-game slates if the field prefers to weigh his 5.5% share against Miami. … Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins round out Buffalo’s three-wide sets with Shakir earning 8 targets (20.3%) to Hollins’ 3 (7%). With four top-36 finishes in his last nine regular-season appearances, Shakir offers the highest floor of the group (Coleman included) weekly. Hollins garners interest exclusively in Showdown for his 11.5-yard depth of target. … Only Marquez Valdes-Scantling has run fewer routes (7) than Curtis Samuel (17) among the team’s receivers. Buffalo’s short turnaround out the gates and extended rest between games is the only reason to have any interest in Samuel for single-game offerings. He’s droppable in 10-team leagues. … Dalton Kincaid missed Week 2 snaps due to a knee to the head but still ran 15 routes to Dawson Knox’s 6. More concerning is that all four (22.2%) of Kincaid’s targets came behind the line of scrimmage for a -2 aDOT (lol). A top-12 option in season-long formats, Kincaid could be outscored by Strange in two-game contests if that safety-blanket usage holds.

Score Prediction: Bills 21, Jaguars 17