Episode 149 - Biden’s ‘BackDoor’ Climate Plan | API Chief Economist, Dr. Dean Foreman

Energy Week

Biden’s ‘BackDoor’ Climate Plan
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-backdoor-climate-plan-11616020338?
-Can the EPA force states to regulate C02 regulations under current ozone laws?
-It is possible and this is something the EPA may be working toward if Biden Admin climate legislation doesn’t work
-And what about federalism?
Oil Investors Hunt for Cash Gushers
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-investors-hunt-for-cash-gushers-11616151615
-Where the Saudis right?
-Why isn’t Texas producing more? Banks aren’t interested in lending to frackers when Saudis could change their mind about production any month?
Saudi Aramco to prioritise China for next 50 years
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2198029-saudi-aramco-to-prioritise-china-for-next-50-years
Column: China’s five-year plan focuses on energy security
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-china-energy-kemp/column-chinas-five-year-plan-focuses-on-energy-security-kemp-idUSKBN2BB1Y1
-China says it wants carbon neutrality by 2060, peak carbon emissions 2030
-COuld China unpeg oil from the dollar?
Interview with API Chief Economist, Dr. Dean Foreman
How are we doing a year later? Rebounding?
- pretty remarkable rebounding
- Both in January and February oil demand is within 1.2% and 2% of where it was a year ago
- Baker Hughes rig counts aren’t coming up despite the fact that we had $65 WTI. Will take more for the industry to come back.
- Global oil demand recovery in 2021 and 2022 could become the largest 2 year increase on record since 1950.
- Need to have a lot more investment into capex and drilling activity in US.
- US LNG exports have increased to Europe, but with Nordstream 2 coming online soon, will this hurt US LNG exports? Demand is so strong there’s room for both!
- Europe will probably get a better deal out of this, but US cost effectiveness is good.
- More agreements for LNG
- US liquid fuel consumption could return to 2019 levels but he second half of 2021
- Passenger traffic is down by over 50% year on year but flights are only down 13%. Still substantial decline in jet fuel use.
- Refinery utilization in Feb dropped to 56% (lowest point ever seen) at one point due to Texas Freeze.
- Inventory build aren’t actually that bad because we do have demand and it should normalize. Lingering impacts in data through March but then should be fully normalizing.
- Have stimulus checks impacted demand?
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