#39 The Optimizer

Behind the Balance Sheet

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1 yıl önce 1:06:20

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Harris has also constructed a unique organisational methodology to handle investing mistakes – I have never encountered a process in which the analyst is changed when the stock doesn’t go to plan. Bill explains why and other techniques in this fascinating discussion. Steve was so looking forward to this conversation and Bill didn’t disappoint.

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#Trading #Business #stephen clapham

#39 The Optimizer

Behind the Balance Sheet

58 subscribers

published 1 yıl önce

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MP3•Bölüm sayfası

52 bölüm

#Trading #Business #stephen clapham

Tüm bölümler

1
#45 The Chess Master 1:17:06

12 gün önce1:17:06

1:17:06

In his youth, George Michelakis, was a top 3 global under-20chess player. No surprise he is pretty good at investing too and runs a $2bn long short equity hedge fund out of London. Since 2006, he has compounded capital at a rate of 5.35x vs 3.43k for the MSCI world, on net exposure of 30-45%. That’s an impressive record but astonishingly, he entered his longest-running short position 10 years ago. We talked about his investing philosophy, his theory about alifestyle recession, why shorting is critical to performance, how he manages the fund and the team, why he focuses on management and why, as in chess, man plus machine or analyst plus AI will beat the lone human, which has profoundimplications for investors.…

1
#44 The Think Tank Manager 1:12:16

6 weeks önce1:12:16

1:12:16

Dan Rasmussen is the founder and CIO of Verdad Advisers, an unconventional quantitative investment boutique. In this conversation, Steve and Dan agree that private equity and credit look highly risky for the next decade. They debate the value of forecasting, where they have very different views. They similarly disagree on forecast horizons, with Dan favouring near term accuracy and Steve thinking longer term forecasts are more likely to be accurate. They also debate the persistence of growth and discuss Dan’s favourite financial metric. Steve and Dan have different perspectives on many issueswhich leads to apparently contradictory conclusions but in reality, they don’t disagree – the issue is base rates versus marginal opportunities. Steve and Dan view markets through different lenses, which makes for an interesting discussion.…

1
#43 The Growth Investor 1:18:47

10 weeks önce1:18:47

1:18:47

In this episode with Tom Slater of Baillie Gifford, manager of the £10bn Scottish Mortgage investment trust, we cover a lot of ground. Of course, we discuss his current thoughts on China and the Mag 7, including why he has trimmed Nvidia but still likes Meta and his thoughts on Elon Musk. Tom explainshis investing philosophy, what growth managers do differently from traditional value managers and how the firm’s culture has made Baillie Gifford such a successful manager. Tom explains how he remains calm in the roller coaster rides of many of his stocks, with drawdowns of 60-70% common, notably Nvidia in 2022 on its way to that $3tn capitalisation; why he favours technical founders who can advantage their companies in the AI age; what Elon Musk said to him in 2013 and why that has stayed with him; the difference between investing in quoted companies and those in private markets; and why he and colleagues don’t pitch stocks to the team, which he believes gives them an important behavioural advantage.…

1
#42 The Credit Expert 1:15:39

14 weeks önce1:15:39

1:15:39

When it comes to credit, few people have better credentials than Greg Peters, co-CIO of PGIM, with AUM of $700bn. In this fascinating conversation, we discuss the differences between investing in equities and credit, the legacy of the zero interest rate period, why PGIM uses scenario based forecasting in preference to single point estimates, why covenants have gone out of fashion and why that’s dangerous, ad much more. Listen to the end for an update on the outlook for markets in 2025.…

1
#41 The Composer 1:20:40

18 weeks önce1:20:40

1:20:40

Anthony Bolton is best known for Fidelity Special Situationsfund’s 19.5% pa returns, 6% above his benchmark, over a 28 year period. He was not only a highly accomplished investor but was both revered and liked by his colleagues. Pragmatic, unfailingly courteous, courageous, and universally popular, he exhibits none of the arrogance that is sometimes exhibited by successful investors with far inferior performance. In a first for this podcast, this interview was recorded live at the Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh on November 21, 2024, in front of an audience of investors, professional and amateur.…

1
#40 The Chronicler 57:34

24 weeks önce57:34

57:34

Lionel Barber is the former editor of the Financial Times and probably the only journalist on the planet to have interviewed Presidents Obama, Trump and Putin. Under his stewardship, the FT metamorphosed from a newspaper into a digital subscription business, and was sold to the Japanese company Nikkei for 44x earnings. And as editor, Barber fully backed up former guest Dan McCrum in his investigation of Wirecard. I was delighted when Lionel agreed to come on the show to talk about his new book, Gambling Man, a biography of Masa Son, founder of Softbank and creator of the $100bn Vision Fund. I have long been curious about Son, who for 3 days at the peak of the dot.com boom was the richest man in the world. Barber spent 3 years writing his meticulously researched book for which he interviewed 150 subjects, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, as he explains in our discussion. Some of his stories, including his description of Son’s inner sanctum, are marvellous. If you enjoy this episode, head over to our Substack, (sign up button on https://behindthebalancesheet.com/), take the monthly paid option and get exclusive additional content, including Steve's interview with Alok Sama, former CFO of Softbank International.…

1
#39 The Optimizer 1:06:20

28 weeks önce1:06:20

1:06:20

Bill Nygren has been at Harris Associates for over 40 years and considers himself a value investor. Yet his portfolio has owned Netflix, Amazon and Meta recently, while Alphabet is his largest position. Bill explains his unusual but highly effective approach to value investing. Harris has also constructed a unique organisational methodology to handle investing mistakes – I have never encountered a process in which the analyst is changed when the stock doesn’t go to plan. Bill explains why and other techniques in this fascinating discussion. Steve was so looking forward to this conversation and Bill didn’t disappoint.…

1
#38 The Cyclist 1:13:17

33 weeks önce1:13:17

1:13:17

Peter Oppenheimer is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe and the author of two books on market cycles. His first book, the Long Good Buy is sub-titled Analysing Cycles in Markets. His follow-up book Any Happy Returns, is sub-titled Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets and looks at longer term secular trends and the future outlook for economies and markets. Our discussion covers both. Our episode title refers to Peter’s study of cycles in markets, but amusingly for a partner at Goldman Sachs, he arrived for our recording on a bike, not their usual mode of transport.…

1
#37 The Analyst 59:13

37 weeks önce59:13

59:13

John Armitage is a giant in the hedge fund world and in the world of investing more broadly. His firm, Egerton Capital, celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. In this conversation, John explains how he started with $10m, and why you couldn’t do that today. He touches on his portfolio, talks about his approach to investing, explaining why he requires his analysts to follow more than one sector, and why he doesn’t employ data scientists. We discuss Elon Musk, AI, and geopolitics and John gives advice to a young person contemplating a career choice. And Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, the largest single equity owner in the world, explains why John is so highly regarded by his peers. John is our first podcast guest to return for a second episode.…

1
#36 The Runner 1:18:25

41 weeks önce1:18:25

1:18:25

John Huber is an investor with a small fund managing his family assets and outside capital in a concentrated portfolio. John has written an excellent blog, Base Hit Investing, for many years, explaining his investing principles. We discuss these in this episode, including what John looks for in an investment, why he emphasises capital allocation even more today, where he sees the sweet spot in revenue growth, why he likes Alphabet, why he is focused in North American stocks but is now looking at Japan and US small caps and why Floor & Décor is one of his major positions. Show Notes…

1
E3 Carine Smith Ihenacho of Norges Bank IM 48:12

44 weeks önce48:12

48:12

Carine Smith Ihenacho is Chief Governance and Compliance Officer at Norges Bank Investment Management, the Norwegian wealth fund. It’s the largest single equity owner in the world and sets out to be the most transparent. She is therefore likely the most powerful person in the world of ESG. In our podcast episode, Huw van Steenis and I discussed: How you can combine sustainability with the pursuit of returns The difference between the US and Europe when it comes to the energy transition How the fund takes action to divest and exclude companies on climate, enviromental and even tax grounds How NBIM conduct their reviews Issues with ESG ratings and how they can be improved Why companies pushing back targets paradoxically may be a sign of progress Carine is uniquely placed to comment on the energy transition and all things relating to governance and this was a fascinating conversation. Show Notes…

1
#35 The 100 Bagger Hunter 57:33

46 weeks önce57:33

57:33

Chris Mayer is the founder of Woodlock House Family Capital and the author of 100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them. He has written several other books and formerly wrote an investing newsletter which led him to travel the world seeking investment ideas. Studying the universe of 100 Baggers has led Chris to a clear set of investing principles which mean his universe of investible ideas is extremely limited and his fund owns just 11 stocks. Our discussion covers his respect for family owned businesses, his emphasis on corporate culture and his focus on the very long term. He even rejected an institutional investor as a client because they wanted monthly performance. Show notes…

1
#34 The Letter Reader 1:03:48

48 weeks önce1:03:48

1:03:48

Lawrence Cunningham is the author of 20 books; an academic with over 60 publications; a legal expert; an accounting expert; a governance expert; a director on 3 quoted company boards; and a company adviser. His most famous book is the Essays of Warren Buffett in which he extracts sections from the sage’s letters over decades and orders them by subject. In our conversation, he tells how he first met Mr Buffett, how the books came about, how he sends Mr Buffett a draft of each publication, and explains how and why the letters are so carefully crafted. Few have studied Berkshire and particularly the letters as closely and he has some fascinating perspectives.…

1
#33 The Stoic 52:07

50 weeks önce52:07

52:07

Peter Cowley is a successful angel investor. But it was his tragic private life which prompted this interview. Two of his three children lost to suicide; their mother died unexpectedly; his sister lost to alcoholism; his brother died aged 21 from cancer; two decades in recovery from alcoholism; and he has now been diagnosed with terminal Stage 4c cancer and statistically has 9 months to live. In this interview, Peter calls himself fortunate. Since meeting Peter, not a day has passed that Steve has not thought about this remarkable man and day felt grateful for his lot. Hopefully the podcast will also make people aware of how common suicide is among young men. Show Notes…

1
E2 Barry Norris explains why offshore wind economics are unsustainable. 57:14

52 weeks önce57:14

57:14

Steve Clapham and climate finance expert Huw van Steenis talk to Barry Norris, climate sceptic and founder and CIO of Argonaut Capital. Barry explains why he believes the economics of offshore wind are unsound. He likens wind and solar to unreliable workers and thinks nuclear and fossil fuel generation are the reliable workers. You can't have a factory staffed only by unreliable workers he argues. Barry has made good money out of shorting Orsted, the Danish offshore wind company which fell 60% from the peak. Barry explains why he thinks there may be more to go. We think you will find some of his arguments compelling and encourage you to read the shownotes and the newsletter accompanying the podcast to learn more.…

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