The Bank Model is Broken. Federal Reserve must pause on rates. AI wants your job.

Avoid Crisis

April 12, 2023 - Avoid Crisis hosts Reynaldo Arellano and Allen Plyler walk back the financial crisis memory lane and note that Warren Buffet, an invited guest, has not shown his cards about stepping in to support the regional banks. The banking models are showing signs of stress on both the balance sheet and income statement. Artificial Intelligence may take over your job.

Key Points from Rey:

• First Republic Bank suspending the preferred dividend this year is indicative of the struggle banks are facing with the cash on the balance sheet.
• Banking relationships are up in the air now, a very challenging time from both the balance sheet and income statement sides at the bank.
• Bad press is hurting FRB, but time will tell. Would be hard pressed to get me to bet against their management team.
• CFOs in the startup world now are going to be very challenged based on this crisis we are in.
• Getting capital now is going to be difficult. You need to maintain a high level of cash.
• The pendulum has swung now, funding is going to be very difficult for companies now.
• Good ideas won’t get funded now and maybe for some period of time.
• The current market activity shows inflation seems more under control in the US, and now the Fed should pause on raising rates.
• The Fed raised rates too fast after keeping them too low for too long. It’s time to take a pause.
• Avoid Crisis by avoiding a single point of failure risk, this is true for supply chain, banking relationships, etc.
• What percentage of the workforce will be replaced by Artificial Intelligence? AI is going to create a bigger separation between the haves and have nots.
• In the long run, AI may drive GDP growth, but it will be painful.
• Think Bob Lee issue may not be directly related to Cash App.
• Think, Decide, Act…..Avoid Crisis, get rid of credit card debt and manage cash flow.
• It’s time to cut back on discretionary spending, and rebalance your portfolios.
• As an individual now, you need to be in a flight to frugality.
• You can win in this environment, but you have to watch what is happening on the playing field.
• We’ll connect the dots when the guests come on as to how they learned of the podcast.

Key Points from Allen:

• The banking crisis is creating a challenge as deposit losses are making the timing of investments even more critical.
• The debate on whether we have too many banks goes back to Jefferson and Hamilton. Jefferson wanted more banks and Hamilton favored a central bank.
• Maybe the idea that FRB must be sold is going to be taken off the table.
• SVB failure, the second largest in US History, is going to have a big impact in the startup community as funding is going to be very difficult as the lender of choice is no longer there.
• There will be more clarity on the economy as the bank earnings come out.
• More investors are looking for a pause in interest rates.
• The financial models that have been used in the past may not be as relevant, as technology and artificial intelligence is impacting companies in ways we may not understand yet.
• Think about your job, how much of your job and be replaced in part or in whole by AI?
• AI can perform tasks and analyze data faster than humans in many situations.
• Cash App founder Bob Lee murder, is there more there, especially with ties of Cash App to crypto and the accusations from the Hindenburg Research Report.
• The banking crisis is not over, where will the ripples surface?
• The recession risk now is growing. Economic contraction is expected, how to avoid a crisis should be thought of now.
• Have not heard from invited guests Sharon Stone, Spencer Lee, or Shaquille O’Neal, but expect as our audience grows word of mouth will let them know they are invited and they will come on as guests.

Connect with Rey
linkedin.com/in/reynaldoarellano

Connect with Allen
linkedin.com/in/allen-plyler-cpa-mpm-3803992a/

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