Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s Global Economic & Markets Research team will cover off on the latest market and economic news and dive deep into the big issues impacting the Australian and global economy. Information in this podcast is of a general nature only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs and does not constitute personal financial advice.
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Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting currency markets including the upcoming US election, interest rate differentials which have moved in favour of the Australian dollar, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision this week. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to …
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Economics Weekly – Strong employment growth reduces odds of near-term rate cut
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The strength of the labour market continues to surprise. In this week’s podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss the recent strength in the Australian labour market and outline the implications for the RBA. They also talk through some of the thematic research the Aussie economics team published last week on inflat…
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Global Economics - Interest rate cuts to improve global economic outlook in 2025
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The global interest rate cut cycle has started. And there are many more interest rate cuts ahead across most major economies. CBA’s view is that the interest rate cuts will improve global economic outlook in 2025. In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down to d…
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The CommBank HSI fell by 0.7% in September as consumers pulled back spending after the Father’s Day boosted splurge in August. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss the all the key takeaways from the September HSI in today’s podcast. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read …
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top influences on currency markets this week including Chinese fiscal stimulus, Australian labour market data, the NZ CPI and the ECB’s interest rate announcement. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Marke…
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Economics Weekly – Less hawkish RBA minutes, labour market in focus
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In this weeks podcast, Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird and Economist Harry Ottley talk through the RBA’s less hawkish communication from last week and touch on the private sector surveys that were released. They then move on to preview this week, with the September labour force survey in focus. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to…
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences impacting on currencies markets including Middle East conflict, potential fiscal stimulus from China and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s interest rate decision. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Glo…
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Economics Weekly: Retail trade jumps ahead of RBA communication spree
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In this weeks podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through the current crosscurrents in the spending data in Australia and explain why the date of fathers day likely boosted the August retail trade figure. They also break down the other economic data from last week and preview a busy upcoming week of communication from the RBA. ------ DISCLAIM…
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FX Weekly - The US labour market is focus this week, further Chinese economic stimulus could support AUD
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Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top there influences on currencies this week including US labour market data, the possibility of more Chinese economic stimulus and the new Prime Minister in Japan. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) dis…
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Weekly: RBA and August CPI deep dive
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Last week the RBA held rates and the August monthly CPI dipped to 2.7%/yr, both as expected. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu from the Australian Economics team deep dive into the RBA meeting, including a less hawkish press conference as well as the broadening disinflation trend in the August data. Stephen also discusses how the energy rebates will imp…
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In this podcast, Kristina Clifton sits down with Carol Kong to talk through all the stimulus measures announced by the Chinese authorities this week and their implications for the Chinese economy. We continue to expect the government will deliver more fiscal stimulus soon. The risk remains China’s economic growth will undershoot our forecast of 4.9…
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Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the US inflation, and the RBA and PBoC’s interest rate decisions, and the likely impact on the Australian dollar. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com…
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Labour market remains resilient ahead of RBA Board meeting, CPI data
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This week, Stephen Wu, Senior Economist and Harry Ottley, Economist discuss last week’s Aussie labour market data and explain how it was the trigger to push back CBA’s forecast for interest rate relief. They also look ahead and preview the RBA Board meeting and monthly CPI data this week. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, y…
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This week Kristina Clifton and Jsoeph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings and impacts on currency markets. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. Information in this podcast …
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Economics Weekly: Weak survey data but all eyes on August labour market data
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In the Australian Economics Weekly podcast, Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist reflect on the weak consumer and business sentiment surveys released past week. Particularly the price signals from the business survey bode well for the inflation outlook. All eyes will be on the August labour market data relea…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights August 2024
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An early Father’s Day saw a lift in spending in August. The CommBank Household Spending Insights Index rose by 1.8%/mth with gains in spending on Household goods and Hospitality. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist discuss the results in this latest podcast. Education spending also rose while Utilities spend fell …
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the consumer price index in the US, the Chinese economic data dump for August, and the European central bank’s monetary policy announcement. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to r…
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Economics Weekly: Deep dive in June quarter GDP
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This week Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu deep dive in the June quarter GDP data. A soft result overall with growth of just 0.2% for the quarter and just 1% for the year. Weak consumption, strong public demand are discussed as well as the latest on household incomes, savings and productivity growth. A quiet week ahead locally with survey data out and …
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Economics Weekly: July CPI wrap up and GDP preview
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This week Belinda Allen, Stephen Wu and Gareth Aird deep dive into the July CPI data as well as the upcoming June quarter GDP data. Stephen notes disinflation broadened in July, beyond the electricity rebates. July retail trade was soft given the start of income tax cuts. While Gareth discuss the June quarter GDP print which should show continued m…
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In this week’s episode Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets: Australian GDP data, a series of US labour market reports and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Researc…
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Electrifying business car fleets: Exploring three pathways to decarbonisation
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Electrifying Australian cars have involved the uptake of various low-emission technologies ranging from hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In the latest podcast, Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, and John Oh, Sustainable Economist sit down t…
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In this week’s episode, Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso discuss the top four influences affecting currency markets: Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, the US personal consumption expenditures inflation report, the Australian monthly CPI indicator for July, and European consumer price index for August. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ …
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Economics Weekly: RBA minutes reiterate hawkish tilt, busy data week ahead
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This week, CBA economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu discuss the RBA minutes released last week and look ahead to a busy week for Australian economic data. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.…
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We discuss the top four influences on currency markets this week, including a speech by FOMC Chair at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the RBA’s August meeting, Japan’s consumer price index and European wages. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimer…
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Economics Weekly: Labour market cools, RBA minutes headline quiet week ahead
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In this week’s podcast, Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley talk through last weeks labour force survey and why despite strong employment outcomes, the unemployment rate continues to rise. They also discuss the impact a loosening labour market is having on wages growth and preview the RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due out tomorrow. ------ DISCLAIMER …
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CommBank Household Spending Insights July 2024
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The first look at household spending in July showed no change according to the CommBank Household Spending Insights series. The index was flat in seasonally adjusted terms, with annual growth sitting at 4.5% in original terms. Chief Economist, Stephen Halmarick and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into the details in the latest podcast and note…
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Economics Weekly: RBA deep dive ahead of labour and wage data
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It was a big week with the RBA August Board Meeting and a hawkish tone in the statement and the press conference. Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist deep dive into the meeting as well as the forecast updates in the Statement on Monetary Policy. The week ahead is also busy with the release of July employmen…
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In this week’s episode we discuss the top three influences affecting currency markets, including the US CPI, Australian employment and wages, and UK employment and CPI. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEMR) disclaimers which can be found at www.commbankr…
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This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the key influences on currency markets, including rising concerns of a US recession, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s impending interest rate decision, and New Zealand’s key employment data. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economi…
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Economics Weekly: CPI wrap up and RBA preview
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Finally the Q2 24 CPI printed last week. A softer than expected CPI print removed the chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August. Belinda Allen and Stephen Wu wrap up the data as well as preview the RBA meeting which should be a low key affair. We stick to our base case that an easing cycle can commence in November 202…
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This week Kristina Clifton and Joseph Capurso discuss the three major central bank meetings this week, that could influence the Australian dollar. They also discuss the upcoming Australian CPI, which is widely regarded to make or break the case for an Reserve Bank of Australian interest rate hike next week. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening…
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Economics Weekly: All eyes on Q2 CPI
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The long awaited Q2 24 CPI will be out Wednesday this week. How inflation prints will make or break the case for the RBA to increase interest rates at the August Board Meeting. In this podcast, Senior Economist Belinda Allen and Economist Harry Ottley chat through why the CBA house view remains that a further interest rate rise will not be required…
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This week Joseph Capurso and John Oh sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the recent announcement of President Biden stepping down from the elections, upcoming data releases in the US and Europe. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are a…
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Economics Weekly – Unemployment rises; building activity constrained
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In this podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley discuss last week’s June labour force survey and March quarter building activity data. Despite rising unemployment, the labour force report does not stand in the way of a rate hike of the Q2 24 inflation data is sufficiently strong. Current and future residential building activity remains cons…
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FX Weekly – Attempted assassination of President Trump, China’s Third Plenum, Bank of England policy outlook
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This week Carol Kong and Joseph Capurso sit down to discuss a range of economic data and political events that could influence the Australian dollar. They discuss the assassination attempt on President Trump, the Third Plenum in China, New Zealand and the UK CPIs. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read th…
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Economics Weekly: Survey data soft ahead of key labour market data
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Last week was quiet with three private sector surveys on the soft side and the release of the CommBank Household Spending Insights data for June. Harry Ottley, Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist talk through this data as well as preview the all important June labour market data this week. The outcome of the labour market data could have …
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CommBank Household Spending Insights June 2024
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 0.6%/mth in June with the gains driven by Recreation, Hospitality and Food & beverage goods. Only partly offsetting these gains were falls in Transport, Education, Household goods and Utilities. Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist and Belinda Allen, Senior Economist dive into details as well as …
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Carol Kong (Economist and FX strategist) and Kristina Clifton (Senior international economist and FX strategist) discuss the outcome of the French parliamentary election and implications for EUR/USD. They preview the US June CPI and FOMC Chair Jay Powell’s testimony which will likely be the main drivers of currencies this week. They also run throug…
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Economics Weekly - RBA minutes discuss upside and downside risks, quieter week ahead
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On this weeks podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) discuss last week’s RBA minutes and retail trade numbers. They also outline our updated home price forecasts and preview a quieter week ahead. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Rese…
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Sustainable - Reconsidering Australia-Europe economic ties
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Joseph Capurso, Head of International and Sustainable Economics, joins John Oh, Sustainable Economist to discuss potential changes to Australia-Europe ties. In the episode, they find that the competition between the west and China in ‘green technology’ may encourage greater trade and investment between Australia, the European Union and the United K…
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Economics Weekly - May CPI Indicator, RBA and US trip thoughts
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16:51
In the weekly Global Economic and Markets Research podcast, Stephen Halmarick, Chief Economist joins Belinda Allen, Senior Economist. They recap the stronger than expected May CPI Indicator and what it means for the Reserve Bank of Australia. Stephen has just returned from the US and shares his thoughts on the US economy, politics ahead of the US e…
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Sustainable - Power down your bill: exploring options for small businesses.
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Whilst electricity prices look to have settled in the coming 2024/25 financial year, further electricity rises look to be a credible risk. However, there are several options available for small businesses to reduce their exposure to volatile electricity prices. To discuss these options, John Oh, Sustainable Economist and Dennis Voznesenski, Agricul…
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Economics Weekly – RBA keeps rates steady; CPI indicator ahead key
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10:09
In this podcast, Economist Stephen Wu and Head of Australian Economics Gareth Aird sit down to discuss last week’s RBA Board meeting and the upcoming inflation data. Despite some tweaks to the post-meeting Statement, the RBA’s messaging remains the same: they are data dependent and will wait and see what the inflation data says. The CPI indicator o…
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Economics Weekly – Unemployment rate falls ahead of RBA Board meeting
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In this podcast, Harry Ottley (Economist) and Belinda Allen (Senior Economist) from the Aussie economics team review last week’s May labour force survey and preview the June RBA Board meeting. Last week, the unemployment rate fell to 4.0% in the last major economic data release before this week’s RBA Board meeting. Despite the fall in the unemploym…
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CommBank Household Spending Insights May 2024
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The CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI) rose by 1.1%/mth in May in what has been a choppy few months for the index. Annual growth now sits at 4.3%/yr. In this podcast, Belinda Allen, Senior Economist, and Harry Ottley Economist discuss the results from May and how looking through the volatility in recent months paints a subdued environment f…
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Economics Weekly – Soft growth, attention shifts to labour market
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In this weeks podcast, Economist Harry Ottley and Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird break down the soft Q1 24 GDP figures from last week and preview the critical May labour force survey that is due on Thursday. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full Global Economic & Markets Research (GEM…
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Economics Weekly – Mixed data ahead of Q1 24 GDP
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15:20
The Australian economic data flow over the past week has highlighted three key themes. Soft retail sales data reinforced a weak household sector. A stronger than expected monthly CPI print led to questions over the stickiness of inflation. While capex data reinforced the positive contribution that investment is making in the economy. In this podcas…
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Economics Weekly – CPI, retail trade headline busy week ahead
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In this Podcast, Economists Harry Ottley and Stephen Wu and Senior Economist, Belinda Allen discuss last week’s RBA Minutes and consumer sentiment data and preview a busy week ahead. The data flow this week is headlined by the April monthly CPI indicator and retail trade figures. ------ DISCLAIMER ------ Before listening to this podcast, you are ad…
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Economics Weekly – Federal Budget handed down, soft wages and labour data
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17:24
Last week was action packed for the Aussie economy. In this week’s podcast, Economists Stephen Wu and Harry Ottley sit down to break it all down. They discuss the major takeaways from the 2024/25 Federal Budget and review the softer data on wages and the labour market from last week. They then briefly preview a much quieter upcoming week with the R…
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Federal Budget 2024/25 - On the edge of the narrow path
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The 2024/25 Federal Budget was handed down on 14 May 2024. After two consecutive surpluses, a larger than expected profile of budget deficits are forecast for 2024/25 and the years ahead as the Federal government lifts spending on new initiatives while previous revenue gains from a stronger than anticipated economy dry up. In the podcast Belinda Al…
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