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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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The Diff

Byrne Hobart

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The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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You’ll hear consequential ideas here first, and in the mainstream months later. Upstream is a curated nexus feed from the Turpentine podcast network, bringing you expert-level conversations hosted by some of the most compelling thinkers in the world including Noah Smith, Samo Burja, Byrne Hobart, Erik Torenberg, and Nathan Labenz. Guests include Marc Andreessen, Balaji Srinivasan, Dario Amodei, Brian Armstrong, David Sacks, Sam Harris, Katherine Boyle, Curtis Yarvin, and many more unmissable ...
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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In this special episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie, host of the podcast Complex Systems to discuss a range of topics including app business models, restaurant industry economics, AI's impact on productivity, the evolution of search technologies and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Netw…
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This week on Upstream, we’re releasing a conversation between Patrick McKenzie and Byrne Hobart where they navigate the compelling terrains of in-app purchases and restaurant economics. They dive into the monetization strategies of video games and the influence of food delivery platforms like DoorDash on pricing and menu designs and explore the bri…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools. – Full transcript availab…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Tokenomics, Revisited (04:41) - AI and Education (06:59) - Money Laundering (07:54) - Agglomeration Economics (08:49) - Threat Models (09:24) - Universal Hardware…
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In this episode, Dr. Michael Levin, Distinguished Professor of Biology at Tufts University, joins Nathan Labenz of The Cognitive Revolution Podcast to discuss embodied minds, his research into limb regeneration and collective intelligence, cognitive light cones, and much more. Dr. Levin and the Levin Lab work at the intersection of biology, artific…
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Bryan Johnson joins Antonio Garcia Martinez and Erik Torenberg to discuss the deeper spiritual beliefs behind the "Don't Die" movement in the face of AI and the inadequacy of human clock speed. They cover religions as death cults, long-termism vs engineering your own longevity, and Bryan's recent interview on Tucker Carlson. — 🔥 Apply to join over …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They …
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - And, elsewhere: (00:01) - Capital Structure (01:12) - Designer Brands and Transaction Costs (02:45) - SMBs (04:27) - Top-Down Market Reform (05:10) - Chosen Obligations…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg sits in with social psychologist Jonathan Haidt to discuss his book, 'The Anxious Generation.' They dive into the severe impact of social media on youth mental health and explore Jonathan's recommendations for smartphone and social media usage among teens. They discuss the broader implications for democra…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand …
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the shifting dynamics of careers and education, the notion of "auto-paternalism" in organizational choices, Spotify's growth strategy in a mature market, the future of podcasts and audio content, and the intricate relationship between AI art, property rights and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Found…
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This week on Upstream, former Netflix HR executive Patty McCord sits down with Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich to dive deep into the creation and impact of Netflix's renowned culture deck, hailed as a pivotal document in Silicon Valley. Patty shares the evolution of the deck over 10 years with Netflix's management team, the challenges of scaling a…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive into a range of fascinating topics such as the evolution and future of OpenAI's business model, economic rationale behind corporate buybacks, changing software economics, China's recent equity market surge and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.tur…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating lo…
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This week on Upstream, we revisit a 2023 conversation between Jacob Helberg, Delian Asparouhov, Christian Garrett and Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries and Oculus VR where they discuss the intersection of Silicon Valley and U.S. defense technology. They tackle the challenges of defense tech innovation, the influence of Chinese technology…
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Corporal Dmytro joins New Frontier to discuss his experiences in the Ukrainian military and the ongoing conflict with Russia. Some highlights: Firsthand account of the Russian invasion's early days and the chaos of initial combat operations Evolution of the conflict from early artillery dominance to drone warfare and trench combat Comparison of Ukr…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Auto-Paternalism (05:11) - Growth (06:58) - AI Deployment (08:06) - S-Curves and TV (09:04) - Increasing the Asymptote (10:00) - ChinaByrne Hobart tarafından oluşturuldu
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg is joined by economist and futurist Robin Hanson. They dissect the intricacies of human motives, the psychology of status, and the profound impact of self-deception on behavior. Robin shares his revolutionary ideas for reforming academia and his pioneering work on prediction markets and his thoughts on th…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss cult stocks like Tesla and Palantir, debate whether AI or globalization will impact jobs more, explore the energy transition's unexpected reversal, analyze Forbes' content strategy and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ ---…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integrati…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Look for Boring First (07:27) - Moderation (08:46) - ex-SBC (10:26) - Platform Risk (12:51) - Strategic Resources (13:40) - Meta and AIByrne Hobart tarafından oluşturuldu
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This week on Upstream, we’re featuring a discussion between Samo Burja, Rudyard Lynch and Erik Torenberg about the inherent differences between civilizations and their impact on history and politics. They explore the parallels and distinctions between ancient civilizations like Babylon and modern entities like Silicon Valley, the influence of Abrah…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg tackle the current state of the EU's tech sector, evolution of private equity firms, consumer credit defaults, online reputation management and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eaves…
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Erik Torenberg is joined by Noor Siddiqui, founder and CEO of Orchid, to explore groundbreaking advancements in reproductive technology, especially the world's first whole genome embryo screening. They dive into genome sequencing, IVF, and the ethical implications of these technologies, highlighting their potential to significantly reduce the incid…
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In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences becom…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Will The EU Choose to Compete? (13:45) - Unit Economics (15:02) - Coreweave and Capital Structure Arbitrage (15:57) - AI and the Distribution Problem (17:10) - Markets and Narratives (18:15)…
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Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja are joined by Ben Landau-Taylor, a Senior Analyst at Bismarck Analysis. Ben recently published an article in Palladium Magazine about the pervasive problem of fraud in academia. They discussed how fraudulent activities, particularly in medical research, often go undetected due to flawed peer review processes and instit…
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This week on Upstream, we’re dropping the first episode of Logan Bartlett, Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, and Zach Weinberg's newest podcast This Won’t Last. The show is an unfiltered backchannel where they unpack the hype cycles in venture, startup culture, and business. In this episode they discuss Paul Graham’s essay "Founder Mode", AI valuations, th…
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In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money. Patrick discusses the three sta…
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the efficiency of market hypothesis, explores the complexities of breaking up big tech companies, unpacks the intriguing dynamics of currencies from nations to video game gems and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS:…
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Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg are joined by Omar Shams, the founder of Mutable AI, for a deep dive into Omar’s great piece, The AI Organization. In this conversation, they explore the potential of AI to transform organizational productivity, the limitations of financial metrics in GDP, and AI's role in political processes and societal structures.…
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains, networked nature of the finance industry, the strategic direction of Uber in autonomous vehicles, the merits of 'founder mode' and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - What, Exactly are we Trying to Tax? (11:40) - Correlations (12:33) - Reorganization (13:57) - Dating Copilots (15:24) - Thematic Investing (16:42) - Bid Density…
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Erik Torenberg and Noah Smith are joined by Dario Amodei, CEO and Co-founder of Anthropic. Dario talks about the economics of AI development, the comparative advantage of AI companies like Anthropic, AI safety, and his stance on California's SB 1047 bill. They also discuss the impacts of AI on global power dynamics, competition between the US and C…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws …
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the Silicon Valley Canon, impact of tech on traditional markets, the evolution of smart contracts, risks of currency carry trades and more. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 Founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://www.turpentinenetwork.co/ --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ …
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Brian Streem joins Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) to discuss building his startup in Ukraine and his thoughts on the conflict. Some highlights: Brian's company Vermeer and its vision-based navigation system for GPS-denied environments Brian's journey from film production and drone cinematography to defense technology The impact of Russian elect…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Mission and Variance (05:37) - Transitory, After All (07:38) - The Amazon Model (08:46) - Contextual Ads (09:57) - The PE and Sports Transition (11:24) - Credit and Insurance…
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Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, joins Erik Torenberg, Dan Romero, and Antonio Garcia Martinez on Moment of Zen in August 2024 to talk about the company's evolution and the broader crypto landscape. Armstrong discusses Coinbase's focus on product development, their efforts in Washington D.C., why he listens to Balaji Srinivasan, and strategies for…
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss tricky antitrust decisions, Balaji’s Network State, the dynamics of content moderation, and more. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on K…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dan Davies, author of Lying for Money, and The Unaccountability Machine. They discuss how cybernetics–the study of control and communication in complex systems–applies to modern organizations and decision-making. Dan and Patrick discuss how organizations change as they grow, financial fraud a…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Building the Oracles (07:07) - Price Discrimination in Media (07:53) - AI-Generated Propaganda (08:54) - War Economies, Redux (09:40) - Unbundling and Rebundling (10:26) - Attrition…
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In this episode of Upstream, Erik Torenberg sits down with Eoghan McCabe who opens up about his journey entering Silicon Valley, leading Intercom, shifting company culture, and becoming politically engaged. This episode offers a frank look at the complexities of building and scaling a tech company, coming back from personal and professional defeat,…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Casey Handmer, rocket scientist turned CEO of Terraform Industries. Casey discusses the rapid advancements in solar power, the bureaucratic challenges of NASA, the incomprehensible success of SpaceX, and the evolving energy landscape. Casey touches on his experiences at JPL revealing how the organization’s fe…
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This week, Byrne and Erik discuss Meta’s open source strategy, Google’s hiring of Character.AI’s CEO, the calculus behind the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and more. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 🎙️ This Won't Last - Eavesdrop on Keith Rabo…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Our Surprisingly Capital-Abundant World (05:58) - Audience Capture at Two Levels (06:58) - Does Crypto Add Value to Financial Markets? (09:21) - Continuation Funds, Club Deals, and the New E…
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In this episode of Upstream, we’re releasing an interview from 2021 with Marc Andreessen, Sriram Krishnan, and Aarthi Ramamurthy. They discuss the higher education system's inefficiencies, high costs and lack of competition, and explore innovative education models including cohort-based learning and unbundling education components. Marc shares pers…
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