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Excess Returns

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

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Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea Capital Management. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, and talk to interesting guests with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.
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Excess Advantage is a fortnightly podcast dedicated to the Genesys RPG by Fantasy Flight Games. In this podcast, I go into options for players and GMs, setting ideas, customizing your game, and more!
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Welcome to Success After Excess! I am Kristen and I'm going to share my experience and knowledge surrounding excessive behaviours, how to identify them, manage and ultimately destroy them! My goal is help YOU discover and become your BEST YOU!
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Beau North and Sammi Campbell will be taking a look at modern film adaptations of Classic novels to see how they translate into present-day pop culture. In a (mostly) judgement-free zone, Beau and Sammi will watch any modern adaptation, no matter the budget, cast, or level of silliness.
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This isn't just another news show! In this podcast, Allison Day and Son Nguyen discuss what's up in the world of XR, AR, and VR. We're asking questions, brainstorming ideas, chatting with other technologists in the field, and bringing it all to you with the same brand of irreverent humor that long-time fans know and love.
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Dropping Excess Baggage

How To Prepare For Your Season

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Welcome to Living Life To the Fullest with Ps Mark Korley. God has a set season for your elevation, breakthrough etc but you will need to prepare for it. A farmer prepares for the rainy season by planting seeds and making necessary Chanel’s to store and water the seeds. The rain can be a blessing or be destructive. It all depends on your preparation. Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/ps-mark-korley/support
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In this episode, Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We cover a wide range of topics, including inflation, the struggles of value investing, expected future returns, avoiding value traps, AI and a lot more. Stay tuned until the end when we ask Rob what he is most worried and optimistic about wh…
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AI stocks have seen a big run recently. This has led many fundamental-based investors to suggest that things have gotten ahead of themselves. Some have even suggested AI is already in a bubble. But what if we are still in the early innings? What if a bubble is just getting started that could eventually exceed the dotcom bubble? Those are the questi…
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There have been many significant events in the economy and stock market over the past several years. We have had inflation. We have had bank failures. We have had a pandemic. We have even had a potential bubble developing in the AI space. Despite their differences, there is one thing that all of these events have in common - all of them have happen…
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In this episode, we are joined by Mike Taylor, manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). Mike is one of the best healthcare investors out there and has managed portfolios for Oppenheimer and major hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium. PINK is the only ETF in existence that donates all its profits to charity with its proceeds benefitting th…
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the unique multi strategy approach he uses to manage his personal portfolio. We cover the weaknesses of the 60-40 portfolio, the 4 buckets Bob uses as the building blocks for his investment strategy, the benefits of simplicity, how Bob views hom…
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David Einhorn said in a recent podcast interview that he feels that the market is broken. He has made significant changes to his investment approach as a result. Much of the basis for his assertion is based on the work of Simplify's Mike Green, who has been warning investors about the dangers of passive investing for many years. In this episode, we…
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With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future …
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In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more…
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Those of us that invest using factors have been taught that there needs to be a reason why they work. We have been taught that for their excess returns to persist in the future, there should be a behavioral or risk-based explanation as to why they exist in the first place. If that assumption is wrong, it would call into question the validity of muc…
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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we are joined by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. We discuss how Katie thinks about managing her personal portfolio and the investing process. We cover Katie's approach to asset allocation, how she incorporates technical analysis into her strategy, international diversification, the benefi…
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In this episode, we speak with DBi founder Andrew Beer about his approach to managing his personal portfolio. We discuss how Andrew looks at his portfolio in the context of his life goals, his views on stocks and bonds, how he incorporates managed futures into his portfolio, his views on homeownership and charitable giving and a lot more. SEE LATES…
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In this episode, we are privileged to be joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors. Chris has built an outstanding long-term record as a value investor and also serves on the board of both Berkshire Hathaway and the Coca-Cola Company. We discuss his process for analyzing companies and his owner earnings-based approach …
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Generative AI is probably the most rapidly developing technology we have ever seen. In this episode, we dig deep into it and its potential impact on both our lives and the investing world with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler. Adam is one of the smartest people we know and has been dedicating a large amount of his free time to utilizing the…
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We have now conducted over 100 interviews on Excess Returns. At the end of all of them, we have asked the same closing question:Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be?In this episode, we bring all of their episodes together into one episode and share the answers…
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This episode is the first part II our Show Us Your Portfolio series. When we originally spoke to Larry Swedroe, we were very intrigued by his use of illiquid alternatives within his portfolio. But we didn’t have time in the original interview to dig into the details of his strategy and the individual components of it. In this interview, we correct …
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In this episode, we are joined by Wes Gray, founder of Alpha Architect and ETF Architect. We cover his biggest lessons from growing the businesses from a startup to over $5 billion in assets. We also discuss the rapid growth of ETFs and ETF Architect's mission to help firms launch them. And we get Wes' take on a variety of issues related to factor …
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In this episode, we talk factor investing with Robeco's Matthias Hanauer. Matthias has written some excellent research papers on a variety of factor investing topics and we dig into the details behind two of our favorites: "Honey I Shrunk the Factor Zoo", and "Resurrecting the Value Premium." We also discuss the state of value investing in general …
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In this episode, we discuss the incredible life and investing career of Charlie Munger with George Washington Professor Lawrence Cunningham. Lawrence in one of the world's leading experts on Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett and Munger and w couldn't think of anyone better to help us pay tribute to Munger. We discuss Munger's life, his investing caree…
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In this episode, we speak with Joel Tillinghast, who will retire as the manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund at the end of this year. Joel managed the fund for over 30 years and built an impressive track record, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 over his tenure. We talk to Joel about the biggest lessons from his career, his approach …
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Most investors reference the returns of popular indexes frequently. But most also do not understand the details of how those indexes are constructed. In this episode, we take a deep dive into index construction with Bloomberg's Athanasios Psarofagis. We start with basic indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and move to more complex ones like the Russ…
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In this episode we bring back one of our most popular guests. We speak with O'Shaughnessy Ventures founder Jim O'Shaughnessy about his transition from a factor investor to a venture capitalist and what he has learned along the way. We cover the current state of factor investing, Jim's biggest lessons from his career, his approach to venture capital…
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In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen’s systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing corre…
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In this episode, we take an in depth look at the credit market with Asterozoa Capital CIO Joe Hegener. We cover the basics of the credit market, the current state of the market, the potential upcoming refinancing wall and the most important fundamental criteria Joe looks at when evaluating companies. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPI…
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When fund managers outperform, they tend to attribute it to their skill. When they underperform, they tend to blame external factors. While that information has been known for some time, it wasn't something that researchers were able to quantify. But the advent of ChatGPT and large language models has changed that. In this episode, we are joined by…
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In this episode, we talk all weather investing with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. We discuss the case for an all weather strategy relative to a stock and bond portfolio, the challenges of looking different than the market, portfolio construction, international diversification, leverage, the characteristics of a good back test and a lot more. We hop…
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We have launched a new podcast called the OPEX Effect with Spotgamma's Brent Kochuba. The monthly podcast will look at the impact of options on the stock market and how long-term investors can better understand it. We have included the first episode in the Excess Returns feed, but if you would like to receive future episodes, please subscribe using…
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In this episode we take a behind the scenes look at one of our favorite podcasts, Flirting with Models, with its host Corey Hoffstein. We discuss the podcast's origin story, how Corey thinks about selecting guests, what he has learned about interviewing, how he thinks about the podcast as part of his overall business strategy and a lot more. We als…
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In this episode we speak with Chesapeake Capital founder Jerry Parker about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss Jerry's trend following based approach and how he uses it to construct a portfolio that balances risk and return. We also discuss the problems with the 60-40 portfolio, the details of building a trend following strategy, cha…
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In this episode, we speak with FPA Crescent Manager Steve Romick. Steve has built an exceptional long-term record using an approach that combines value investing with protection of capital and drawdown management. We discuss the biggest lessons he has learned in his decades of managing money, get his take on the current state of value investing and…
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It has been a painful last decade for value investors. In this episode, our good friend Tobias Carlisle returns to commiserate about the struggles of value and also to talk about the future opportunity it may create. We discuss value spreads, the importance of enduring pain, the comparison with 2000 and a lot more. We also get an update on Toby's n…
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In this episode, we take a deep div into quantitative investing with Michael Robbins, author of the new book "Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing." We discuss data science and machine learning, factor investing, risk management, the qualities of a good back test and a lot more. We hope yo…
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In this episode, we talk trend following and conservative investing with Sierra Mutual Funds CIO James St. Aubin. We talk about their unique banded moving average approach to trend following and how they utilize it to manage risk in client portfolios. We also discuss the importance of educating investors, what makes a good investment manager, quant…
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has spent his career working at some of the most successful firms in the asset management industry, including Bridgewater and Brevan Howard and he explains how the lessons he has learned throughout his career led to how he constructs his portf…
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In this episode, our good friend Cullen Roche returns to the podcast for his 5th appearance. But this time, instead of talking about the macroeconomy as we have in his previous appearances, we discuss how he manages his personal portfolio. We talk about Cullen's unique approach of matching the duration of the asset classes he invests in with his pe…
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In this episode, we speak with Comgest portfolio manager Alistair Wittet We discuss his approach for building a focused portfolio of high-quality European growth companies and the most important criteria he looks at. We also dig into the characteristics that define great long-term brands, the current economic situation in Europe, how the European g…
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International stocks, and particularly emerging market stocks, have struggled relative to US stocks for a long time. That has led some to suggest that international diversification no longer makes sense for investors. But valuations in the space and lessons from history would suggest otherwise.In this episode we discuss the issue with AQR's Dan Vil…
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In this episode, we speak with Essentia Analytics founder Clare Flynn Levy. Essentia has developed software to evaluate investment managers and help them improve as investors. We discuss what Clare has learned through that process and the lessons all of us can take from it. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠…
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In this episode Jack and Matt Zeigler look at factor investing from both the perspective of someone who builds quantitative strategies and someone who utilizes them. They discuss what factors are, why they work, the different ways to combine them into multi-factor portfolios, the importance of matching an investment strategy with the end user's goa…
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In this episode, we speak with Optimal Momentum founder and author of "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" Gary Antonacci about the process he uses to construct his personal portfolio. We talk with Gary about the goals he is trying to achieve with his portfolio and the unique momentum-based approach h…
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Narratives are everywhere in the investing world. They influence what we think as investors. They also influence the decisions we make. Behind the scenes, there is a science to how narratives work. They follow a predictable life cycle and technology can be utilized to measure them and analyze their impact on stock returns. In this episode, we discu…
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In this episode we speak with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss how Adam builds a portfolio of uncorrelated return streams to optimize both return and risk. We also cover how to view historical data, how investors focus on tracking error changes portfolio theory, leverage, leaving money…
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In this episode, we talk growth investing with Wedgewood Partners Chief Investment Officer David Rolfe. We discuss the characteristics of great growth companies and the details of their process to identify them. We cover the importance of dominant products, the characteristics of strong management teams, the role of valuation in growth investing an…
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In this episode, we take a deep dive into emerging market debt with VanEck's Eric Fine. We discuss Eric's unique background that led him to the emerging market space and how that has influenced his approach to it. We then step through emerging market debt step by step and cover the size and composition of the market, the factors that drive its retu…
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In this episode, we speak with Old West's Joseph Boskovich about their process for uncovering companies that focus on adding value for their shareholders. We discuss thy key criteria they use to find these types of companies, the importance of insider ownership, how they look at valuing companies and how they look at capital allocation. We also cov…
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In this episode, we speak with Sparkline Capital founder Kai Wu about his excellent recent paper "Intangible Value: A Sixth Factor". We discuss his research on the importance of intangible assets, how to measure them and turn them into a value factor, the benefits of intangible value to a multi-factor portfolio, and how he used it to construct a 6-…
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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Buckingham Strategic Wealth's Larry Swedroe. Larry has dedicated his career to educating investors and has written more books and articles than we can list in that pursuit. We talk with Larry about how he takes his evidence-based approach to investing and translates it into managing his…
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In this episode, we combine two of the topics we often cover on the podcast. We talk both retirement planning and factor investing with Dimensional Fund Advisors Senior Researcher Mathieu Pellerin. Mathieu has conducted extensive research in both areas and we discuss two of his excellent papers: "Investing for Retirement Income: A Comparison of Ass…
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There has been a lot going on in the options world that is impacting the stock market. The use of 0DTE (0 days to expiration) options has risen dramatically in recent months, options expirations have continued to be significant market moving events and an end of month trade by a JP Morgan fund many investors haven't heard of has also been a signifi…
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In this episode, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the general landscape of the hedge fund industry including the strategies hedge funds employ, whether they add value from a return perspective and if the top performing hedge funds are able to maintain that status over time. We also discuss the challenges of replicating …
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Finding companies that can sustain persistent growth over long periods of time can lead to exceptional returns. Those of us who have witnessed the returns of the great technology companies of the past decade have seen that firsthand. But identifying those companies in advance can be incredibly difficult. In this episode, we talk with Deepwater's Ge…
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