Article Out Loud - The “Not If, But When” Fallacy: Active Shooter Preparedness

Domestic Preparedness and Homeland Security Audio Interviews

By RESEARCH GROUP AT UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, An Article Out Loud Flashback from the Domestic Preparedness Journal, October 12, 2016. Recent active shooter events in multiple cities across the United States have raised concern in other communities with people wondering if their city is next. However, the phrase “It’s not if, but when” may distort how certain people perceive emergency preparedness, especially in cases such as active shooter threats. This common expression leads to inaccurate threat perceptions and can result in leaders becoming complacent. This 2016 article explains this odd pairing of a sense of inevitability with complacency, and the importance of being prepared to counter not only the threat, but also the perceptions of threat. Narrated by Randy Vivian.