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Sibylline is a leading strategic risk and threat advisory firm. We support businesses, governments and NGOs through the provision of high-quality threat-based analysis and services. We do not believe in one-size-fits-all solutions. Instead, our global source network, professional intelligence analysis processes and specialist academic and technical expertise allows us to produce high-quality, insightful work that has direct relevance to our clients’ business.
 
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show series
 
Join your host Alexander Parsons, our Global Director of Intelligence Branch along with Benedict Manzin our Sub Sahara Africa Analyst and Edie Lipton our Africa Associate Analyst to discuss the coup in Guinea. The recent overthrow of President Alpha Conde renders Guinea the third country in the region to undergo a coup in the past year. While local…
 
This week join your host Edward Johnson, Head of Global Analysis along with Liana Semchuk, our Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst and Alex Lord, our Europe & Eurasia Analyst to discuss the up and coming Russian elections. Legislative elections will be held in Russia between 17 – 19 September, with the ruling United Russia highly likely to retain its pol…
 
Join Sibylline CEO, Justin Crump, as he reflects on the state of global terrorism 20 years after 9/11 with three of our experts: Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, James Barth, North America Analyst, and Aedan Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. In this episode, the team discuss how the terror threat has evolved since 2001, with…
 
Our Lead Analyst for Global Risk, John Breen, joins Ignacio Ayala, Latin America Analyst and Isabelle Mallon, Associate Analyst for the Americas to discuss the impact of the crisis in Haiti on humanitarian workers, NGOs, and businesses on the ground. The team will analyse how a 7.2 magnitude earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace will deepen the count…
 
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and the unfolding crisis have dominated the global headlines in recent days. While the eventual fall of the civilian government in Kabul had been foreseen, the speed of the Taliban's advance and the capitulation of the Afghan National Army shocked the international community. As many foreign governments struggle …
 
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2021 report has garnered significant attention since this week's publication, heralding a grim warning of a 'code red for humanity'. What do the findings of the report mean in practice for firms operating across Europe and Eurasia, and which regions will be most at risk? Join Liana Semc…
 
Join your host Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst, along with Louis Cox-Brusseau and Zsofia Wolford our Europe Analysts to discuss the ongoing tensions between Hungary, Poland and the European Commission. Tensions increased recently as the Commission initiated legal proceedings against Hungary over a controversial anti-LGBTQI+ law. This c…
 
Join this week’s host, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst of the Americas, along with Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa, and Rhiannon Phillips, Associate Analyst for the Middle East and North Africa to discuss Tunisia's deepening political deadlock, which has recently come to a head, with President Kais Saied dismissing Prime Minist…
 
On 9 July violent protests broke out across Kwa-Zulu Natal, quickly spreading to Gauteng, resulting in widespread looting and arson, with clashes resulting in hundreds of deaths. Following the deployment of 25,000 soldiers, calm was eventually restored, but not before an estimated ZAR 50 billion in damages was caused, impacting around 40,000 busine…
 
US President Joe Biden is expecting a 45-day update on a US investigation into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The investigation, led by the US intelligence services, is drawing widespread media attention, with scientists, political scientists and health experts weighing in on the polarising hypothesis of whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus may have…
 
With less than 15 days to go to the start of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, the Japanese capital has been placed under a fourth state of emergency amid a fresh surge of Covid-19 infections. The ever-changing pandemic situation has characterised the uncertainty that has shrouded this flagship sporting event, having been already postponed once and att…
 
In recent weeks, a car-bomb attack against an army base hosting US military personnel and an apparent attempt to assassinate President Iván Duque Márquez have raised concerns over the security environment in Colombia. Meanwhile, the country has also witnessed a surge in violent protests in Bogotá and several other cities. In this week's podcast, we…
 
The first round of regional elections in France has yielded startling results, with both the far-right under Marine Le Pen and the ruling party of President Emmanuel Macron seeing significant setbacks nationwide as traditional left- and right-wing parties surge forward. In our latest podcast, Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst, is joined by…
 
In our latest podcast, Alex Parsons, Lead Analyst for the Americas is joined by Eloise Scott, Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Africa and James Hannan, Associate Analyst for Americas, to discuss the presidential elections in Iran. Iranian elections held on 18 June are almost certain to return a hard-line president, allowing hardliners and conse…
 
In our latest podcast, Philip Riding, Middle East and Africa Lead Analyst is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst and Dr Guo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia Pacific, to discuss the G7 Summit in Cornwall. Leaders of the world's wealthiest economies and major democratic powers (including the EU) have gathered at Cornish seaside town of St. Ives for…
 
The federal elections on 6 June will be the second-largest electoral event in Mexico’s history. Over 20,000 positions will be elected, including the entire lower chamber of the 500-seat Congress, 15 state governors, 30 State congresses, and the authorities of around 1,900 municipalities. Together with Ignacio Ayala, Lat-Am Intelligence Analyst, Ale…
 
The dual crises of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse of oil prices have driven significant policy changes amongst many major energy exporters across the Middle East and Africa as governments are forced to address deficiencies in existing industrial models and spending habits. In this podcast Phillip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, is joined by Benedict …
 
The latest conflict in Gaza has drawn much international attention, as has the prospect of a ceasefire, which materialised this morning. In our latest podcast, Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Guo (Hugo) Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst. Together they unpack the last week’s events, why the end of fig…
 
The ransomware attack on US energy firm Colonial Pipeline last week caused significant disruptions to fuel delivery on the East Coast, as the firm suspended most of its operations in a bid to stem the spread of malware. With Colonial pipeline transporting nearly half of US East Coast's fuel supply, this incident highlights the growing threat that c…
 
In this week's podcast Jonathan Dunbar, EMEA Director, is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead APAC Analyst, and John Harley Breen, Lead Global Risks Analyst, to discuss the British-led naval deployment to Asia amid heightened regional tensions. The UK’s new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth recently deployed as part of a larger naval strike group to the…
 
In this week’s podcast Alexander Parsons, Lead Americas Analyst, is joined by Eloise Scott, Middle East and North Africa Analyst, and Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, to discuss the ongoing financial and socio-economic crises in Lebanon. Warnings from officials of severe difficulties in funding imports and subsidies looks to exacerbate the situatio…
 
The Covid-19 pandemic has forced many businesses across the globe to rely more on cloud computing and third-party technology to support remote working arrangements. In this week's podcast, Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager, is joined by Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst, and Guo Yu, lead ASPAC Analyst, to unpack how this increased inter-connectivity has…
 
In this week's episode, EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar discusses the launch of Sibylline's latest report, the Global Extremism Quarterly, with Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Ben Manzin and James Barth, our North America Analyst. They discuss the contents of the report and the impetus for creating it, detailing the unprecedented pace of change in the thr…
 
This week Edward Johnson, Sibylline’s Insight Team Manager, leads a discussion with Liana Semchuk, Europe & Eurasia Lead Analyst, and Alex Lord scrutinising the massing of Russian military forces on the border with Ukraine and combat intensification in the Donbas. These activities have elevated concerns of the potential threat of invasion and a mil…
 
In this week’s podcast Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst, and Benedict Manzin, Africa Analyst, discuss the recent attack on Palma, Mozambique, which brought a temporary halt to the development of the country’s natural gas industry. While this project, which is Africa's largest single investment, has been periodically disrupted by growing insecurity o…
 
Eloise Scott, Analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Philip Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss the recent developments and progress in Israel and Libya Israel goes to the polls next week for the fourth time in two years. The result is too close to call and will likely r…
 
Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe & Eurasia, and James Barth, Analyst for North America, join Director for Sibylline EMEA Jonathan Dunbar, to discuss tensions between the US and Russia increasing since Joe Biden became president of the United States. The risk of US sanctions against Russia expanding remains elevated in the months ahead as bipa…
 
This week’s podcast focuses on the recently declassified U.S. intelligence report confirming that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Eloise Scott, analyst for Middle East & North Africa, and Phil Riding, Lead Analyst for Middle East and Africa, join Director for Sibylline Americas Greg Hoobler…
 
This week’s podcast is hosted by Insight Team Manager Edward Johnson, featuring Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they unpack Myanmar's post-coup political and security risk landscape, as well as the event's implications to the wider region. As tensions continue to escalate driven by the deaths of thr…
 
In this week’s podcast Sibylline’s Deputy Insight Manager Amy Reynolds is joined by Dr Guo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst. Together they analyse the consequences of Beijing charging Chinese-born Australian journalist Cheng Lei with supplying state secrets overseas. The former presenter of the Chinese state-run Engl…
 
In this week's podcast, Sibylline’s Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by Konrad Petraitis, embedded intelligence analyst. Their conversation touches on recent speculation surrounding President Bolsonaro's impeachment, followed by an overview of the challenges ahead of the country's general election and possible cabinet infighting that might …
 
Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by John Breen, Lead Analyst of the Global Risk Team (GRT), and James Hannan, a GRT Analyst, for a discussion on vaccine distribution challenges in Europe. Their conversation unpacks the recent EU vaccine export row with the UK and how it amplified political tensions in Northern Ireland, followed b…
 
Sibylline’s Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by Guo Yu, PhD, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, and Aédán Mordecai, Asia-Pacific Analyst, for a discussion on the recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops over disputed border areas in northern Sikkim. Their conversation addresses conflicting accounts between official statements and media re…
 
Sibylline’s EMEA Director Jonathan Dunbar is joined by Philip Riding, MEA Lead Analyst and Eloise Scott, Middle East Analyst, to discuss the recent developments in the Gulf and how deeper formal ties with Israel and reconciliation in the Qatar blockade provide opportunities for businesses in the region in 2021. They also examine the more notable im…
 
Sibylline Americas Director Greg Hoobler is joined by James Barth, North America Analyst, Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe, and Hugo Yu, Lead Analyst for Asia-Pacific, for a discussion based on events and implications associated with the right-wing insurrection at the US Capitol on January 6. This discussion will include important considerati…
 
Join our host Justin Crump, Sibylline’s CEO, for the second half of the Disinformation Misinformation Podcast. This week, Justin is joined by organisational psychologist, speaker and author Dr Nicole Lipkin. Dr Lipkin is the CEO of Equilibria Leadership Consulting & Equilibria and the Founder of the Young Leader Project & HeyKiddo™. In this episode…
 
This week Justin Crump, Sibylline’s CEO, is joined by guest speaker Lisa Kaplan to discuss the realms of conspiracy theories and misinformation. Lisa is the Founder and CEO of Alethea Group, an organization that identifies and mitigates disinformation operations for political campaigns and companies, and so shares some great perspectives on this gr…
 
Join Sibylline’s Greg Hoobler as he hosts this week’s podcast with Liana Semchuk, Lead Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Alex Lord, Europe & Eurasia Analyst; Amy Reynolds, Deputy Insight Manager; and James Barth, North America Analyst. Our speakers revisit the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict and explore whether the surprisingly quiet post-election period r…
 
Join Sibylline's CEO, Justin Crump, as he hosts this week's podcast with Phil Riding, Lead EMEA Analyst; Eloise Scott, MENA Analyst; Dr Hugo Yu, Lead ASPAC Analyst; and Hans Horan, Cyber Analyst. Our speakers examine Israeli-Arab relations and the potential impact of the US election and China's new socio-economic strategy and its implications on cy…
 
Listen to our latest podcast hosted by Greg Hoobler, Sibylline’s Americas Director, who is joined by Liana Semchuk, Lead Analyst for Europe and Eurasia, Hedda Halvorsen, Europe Analyst, and Phil Riding, our Lead Analyst for the Middle East and Turkey. They discuss tensions between France, Turkey and the wider Muslim world. The recent attack in Nice…
 
Join Sibylline's CEO, Justin Crump, as he hosts this edition’s discussion with Dr Hugo Yu and Liana Semchuk. Our speakers identify the latest developments and trigger points surrounding North Korea's weapons development; the ongoing domestic and international conflicts in Belarus and Armenia-Azerbaijan; the implications of the Kyrgyz protests; and …
 
Our US-based Director, Greg Hoobler, leads a conversation examining lessons for how security and intelligence leaders can continue to position themselves, their teams, and their organizations to successfully navigate the many challenges in this COVID-era. Erika Weisbrod, Corey Vitello, and Erik Antons lend their collective experience and wisdom, yi…
 
Amid the ongoing discussions surrounding the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Europe, we take a look at some of the questions being asked. Split across three sessions, our podcast begins by looking at the current situation in Europe. Our second session considers the the social and economic impacts of the pandemic, drawing out the likely trends to…
 
Our COO Tamara Makarenko has a conversation with leading financial crime experts Samantha Sheen and Payal Patel about the impact COVID is having on financial crime. Their discussion covers why financial crime is ‘surviving’ lockdown, new financial crime trends, the regulatory response, and how companies can safeguard themselves. The podcast ultimat…
 
Three renown global security leaders share their insights on how to be prepared to emerge from the disruption of COVID, identifying what needs to be rebuilt, the increasing importance of an intelligence-driven approach to corporate security, the “Spring Training” model for recovery, and why empathy is the cornerstone for leaders shepherding their t…
 
Do you want to know about squiggle theory, why W matters to U, the VERUCA world, why Belarus matters, and why you’ll be saying goodbye to business class? Tune in and tune out to our latest podcast, where CEO Justin Crump discusses the shape of the world after Covid with our top Analysts, Ed Johnson and Amy Reynolds. We hope you enjoy the podcast an…
 
On 28 February, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan relaxed Turkey's border controls with EU member states Greece and Bulgaria, paving the way for large numbers of migrants and refugees to journey to Europe. Escalating conflict levels in Syria between Turkey and Russia-backed Syrian government forces have raised concerns of a repeat of the 2015 …
 
Locust swarms are devasting agriculture across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya, with some communities reporting 100% crop loss and Somalia announcing a state of emergency. These swarms are now spreading into South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and most recently into the Democratic Republic of Congo. This will significantly elevate threats to food security in…
 
Last year's unprecedented surge in environmental activism forced regulators to respond. The unprecedented amount of attention on climate and sustainability also shifted the focus of investors and attracted more attention to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) related topics, with the “environmental” component in particular, likely to remain …
 
The operating environment for US and other foreign firms in China will not change significantly following the implementation of the ‘phase one’ Sino-US trade deal on 14 February. While the agreement will bring a reprieve for companies operating in some of the sectors that have been affected by the tariffs, challenges such as IP theft, forced techno…
 
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